Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1505544
13 NEWS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 13 AUGUST 2023 team spirit gone? criticism may be a blessing in disguise. Managing conflicts under the big tent Yet the party still lacks a pub- lic forum where activists can discuss the overall direction on issues such as planning, mi- gration, and how far the party should go on the civil liberties front, particularly on topics like abortion and euthanasia. For while in a big-tent party, it is normal to have different outlooks, by avoiding debate on these issues Labour un- der Abela may be repeating the PN's error under Gonzi, when the party's identity crisis was ignored only to continue haunting the party for the next decade. The Labour Party's electoral successes might have inadvert- ently contributed to this prob- lem. Under Muscat's leadership, the party's stratospheric vic- tories granted him a blank cheque in steering the team toward economic policies and social liberalisation he wanted. Nonetheless, Abela's equal- ly impressive victory in 2022 might have obscured growing disillusionment among differ- ent segments of Labour voters which has been brewing for some time. Abela's big win last year de- spite losing 8,200 votes from the party's 2017 tally was pos- sible because the PN lost even more votes to abstention. Polls indicating that nearly a fifth of Labour voters in 2022 now intend not to vote suggest that, while the Opposition isn't gaining ground, Labour might be entering a phase of decline. This is robbing the party of one of its most effective strate- gies - banking on a bandwagon effect which hinges on voters' identification with the winning party. This decline comes amidst a backlash against some of the policies which contributed to vertiginous economic growth, including a laissez faire ap- proach in construction and growing reliance on cheaper foreign labour. In the medium-term Labour's future in government depends on its ability to keep the econ- omy rolling while addressing these concerns. However, the coming months might pose an even more direct challenge to Abela's authority. How things could get much worse for Abela A looming uncertainty for Abela's political future is the pending magisterial inquiry on the hospitals swindle, which should establish whether there are grounds for prosecuting former Labour cabinet mem- bers, including Muscat. The potential arraignment of the former prime minister could trigger a defence outcry from Muscat loyalists, expect- ing Abela to stand up for his predecessor. If the arraign- ment precedes mid-term elec- tions, they may even threaten Abela with their abstention if he fails to comply. This presents the Prime Min- ister with a Hobbesian choice between appeasing Muscat supporters and reaching out to middle of the road voters an- gered over Muscat's involve- ment in the hospital deal. In the 2024 European Parlia- ment and local council elec- tions, Labour needs both types of voters to maintain its super majority. However, the prospect of Ab- ela retaining his super majority also depends on a low turnout among PN voters as was the case in the 2022 general elec- tion. This is where the game gets more complicated because the PN will be fielding Roberta Metsola, the current EU Par- liament president. Her high-profile candidacy will probably boost the turn- out among pale blue voters and could potentially attract middle of the road voters to the PN. Furthermore, a strong show- ing by Metsola could trigger a change in the PN's leadership, altering the political landscape significantly. Metsola parachuting into the domestic league could poten- tially trigger questions within the Labour Party as to whether Abela's coaching skills are suit- ed to counter a reinvigorated Opposition. Surely this remains a hypo- thetical scenario, and events may well unfold differently. For example, any PN gains during the mid-terms could poten- tially solidify Grech's position, making a leadership change in the PN more unlikely. However, in the bleakest scenario involving a Muscat arraignment followed by a La- bour electoral drubbing, which could also pave the way for Metsola's 2027 prime ministe- rial campaign, Abela's leader- ship would suffer a significant blow. This string of events would make the coach more suscepti- ble to internal scrutiny and the voices will not be constrained to the dressing room. The problem for Labour at this juncture is the erosion of the 'team spirit' that characterised the party over the past decade. This erosion has been accelerated by concerns over Abela's abrupt U-turns on amendments to the abortion law and the Sofia inquiry, leaving supporters and activists baffled and disoriente