Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1507175
8 OPINION 7.9.2023 What is in store for the next budget? George Mangion George Mangion is a senior partner at PKF, an audit and consultancy firm, and has over 25 years' experience in accounting, taxation, financial and consultancy services. His efforts have made PKF instrumental in establishing many companies in Malta and established PKF as a leading professional financial service provider on the Island T he man in the street regularly watches announcements on state TV about a healthy economy, full employment and a swi recovery in tour- ist industry - now firing on all cylinders - all dancing to the tune of low unemploy- ment levels. It sounds all hunky dory, as other Eu- ropean states continue to register high unemployment and France faces street ri- ots by workers protesting against laws in- creasing the retirement age by two years. However, in Malta the sound bite from the plebs is that the gap between those making good money (proverbial 1%) and those at the bottom is growing - despite the feel-good factor of generous State handouts. No economist sounded the alarm bells about the national debt. is has nearly doubled in a decade with no sense of ur- gency to reverse the trend. ose at the European Central Bank and at the Euro- pean Commission, who focus solely on their tunnel vision of a relative debt ceil- ing of 60 per cent of GDP as set by the Maastricht Treaty, did not bat an eyelid when presented with national fiscal budg- ets for approval. If Brussels are quiescent on our debt levels, then we may ask why is discussion on the relative increase in the poverty level (real or perceived) not on their top agenda? Ideally, we sit down and take a more holistic approach to the incidence of poverty. We were showered with positive signs of an economy which the prime minister sung for us at the start of summer augur- ing serenity for all. Surely, the repetitive power cuts, and a freak storm has opened the floodgates for complaints. Another topic which gathers attention is care for the environment. is is included under the new ESG rules - yet companies now need to beef up their balance sheets in order to be ranked compliant once the ESG rules become mandatory. Banks are reluctant to be seen mon- itoring the ESG (environment, social and governance) hallmarks that will be launched on all including medium sized companies. Another headache is the need to upskill- ing of workers perhaps via the education system. As state regulators and business devel- opment agencies are run mostly by Cas- tille appointed experts, the level of pro- fessionalism dropped (evidence the Grey Listing) and this can be measured by the dearth of multinational companies apply- ing to set Malta as their base. Apparatchiks lording Castille take every opportunity to place nieces in top jobs as advisers, persons of trust on a gallop, not excluding family acquaintances - all on the gravy train. e latest novelty is how an ex-prime minister was paid €11,000 monthly for giving consultancy to a loss-making company selling exotic birds. Parrots and toucans now camouflage dirty consultancies with their colourful feathers. Malta is an open economy and import- ers are adjusting upwards prices of basic items blaming imported inflation. It is a sign of times that the good old ten years with zero interest rates are over, and banks are even contemplating resiz- ing mortgage repayment terms. Another headache, is the massive leakage of early school leavers (about 17%) who gained no formal education and naturally, still ex- pect to earn a decent wage (not easy when digitization and AI is de rigueur). Nowadays, untrained workers are facing challenges, with employers demanding higher technical qualifications to meet rising competition and digital competen- cy. Lobby groups complain that minimum wage is too low to sustain a breadwinner - unless he/she does three jobs on the hop. Employers maintain, that if the mini- mum wage goes up, then hospitality and construction sectors making heavy use of low skilled workers (mostly TNC's) will report reduced profits and may start shedding workers. A higher cost of wages is therefore coun- terproductive and in fact, eventually may even add to poverty levels. As a counter measure, the Chamber of SME objects to further unsustainable in- creases in public expenditure resulting in millions of euro wasted on direct orders accompanied by lax control over state procurement, social services and capital projects. Government registered a defi- cit of €981.1 million in 2022, equivalent to 5.8% of the gross domestic product. According to statistics compiled by the EU, Malta ended 2021 with a deficit of €1.2 billion, equivalent to 8% of GDP. Can we ignore the national debt bur- den (as interest rates creep up) partially reflecting generous Covid state handouts (with no accretion of permanent assets), sometimes used to wean zombie compa- nies which were on the death row and be- yond recovery. So far, no NAO study has ventured to analyze how much of this largesse was sunk in ghost entities. Yes, our €400/ €500 million annual subsidy of energy and grains is a non-discretionary policy (meaning the rich benefit equally as the poor). Hands on heart, and one cannot but sympathize with the situation of a cash- strapped government (recently more pennies from Heaven were cheques paid to over 200,000 citizens as a tax refund). As expected, the finance minister is seen pulling strings of big spender de- partments to trim the deficit. Regarding tax revenue, he moans that only 30% of registered companies declare a profit. So where is the true justification for issuing cheques titled as a national tax refund (unless it is sugar coating voters for pangs of higher cost of living). e Commission is concerned at the mounting deficit and wants us to curb the massive energy /food subsidies. ey suggest this sum is to be used to lower national debt. Permit me at this juncture to go back in history and remind readers about unprecedented social re- forms introduced in Germany by Otto von Bismarck, the chancellor. He created the world's first modern welfare state. e innovative system, introduced as an insur- ance against the woes of hardship, rather than as a natural entitlement. ose re- forms created a hallmark for developed countries' modern welfare systems: a mix of unemployment benefit, health-care provision, universal education and state pensions. is system of benefits network led much of the developed world, to raise its minimum wages matching inflation (as Malta did in the last budget). But econ- omists warn that minimum pay can only rise so much before employment suffers. Rising labour costs encourage firms to look for labour-saving alternatives such as robotics, this might do good for GDP, but as stated above, would exacerbate the shortage of jobs for less-skilled workers. In summary, these social and economic factors can be talking points for MCESD to arrive at an equilibrium level when dis- cussing with Castille suggestions for the next budget.