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12 ANALYSIS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 24 SEPTEMBER 2023 Roberta Metsola: Designate By addressing the independence mass meeting Roberta Metsola has raised the expectations of supporters who see her as the PN's next leader. In his analysis JAMES DEBONO finds clues of her future intentions in a safe but focused speech and the reactions it provoked. ON Wednesday night all eyes were on EU parliament Presi- dent Roberta Metsola and not on the tried, tested and already defeated party leader Bernard Grech. In this sense Grech has shown a degree of selflessness by invit- ing Metsola to address his par- ty's annual Independence Day mass meeting, fully knowing that Metsola and not him would be the main attraction. It was a veritable case of a rock concert where the support band com- pletely eclipsed the main band. For few people, apart from die- hards, would have been interest- ed in the event had Metsola not addressed it. Moreover, public interest in Metsola is fuelled by speculation on her next step af- ter concluding her term as EU parliament president in June next year. And while many see in her a potential to become party leader and possibly prime minister, few currently perceive Grech as a fu- ture PM. Moreover, people were bound to compare her speech to Grech's and the contrast in style was evident, with Grech lash- ing at Abela's fraudulent gov- ernment and Metsola ignoring Abela completely and making an inclusive pitch for floaters and people disenchanted by the po- litical class. In so doing Grech may have been more forceful than Metsola who still has to get used to ad- dress mass meetings. But he lacked the eloquence of Metsola who can mesmerise by not saying much and just appeal- ing to the least common denom- inator. A symbiosis fraught with peril The reality is that till next year's midterm elections Grech and Metsola inevitably need each other. Metsola who has to con- test again under the PN banner to renew her term as MEP and may have ambitions to lead the party at some stage, can't afford to let her party sink deeper into irrel- evance and therefore she needs to inject some of her energy and sense into it. For another trounc- ing would practically kill any chance of recovery in the next general election. And Grech can benefit from this injection, in the hope that Metsola's wider appeal would help him in achieving the modest target he has set for himself: that of electing three MEPs. In so do- ing he would not have to go back to the party's general council for a confirmation as leader as he had committed himself after the general election debacle. In this way he will be able stay on to lead the party till the next general election. If this happens Metsola would have propped Grech up. This scenario may work for Metsola if she has no interest in becoming party leader but would be a cold shower for voters who hope that Metsola will come to their party's rescue. For Metsola, the major risk is being tainted by the party's toxic brand. This is because any bout of fac- tional infighting within the party or any strategic blunders by its leadership can well backfire on her. Yet her calculation may well be that the only way to contain the damage is by taking an active and leading role in the campaign. The risk for Grech is that of being increasingly perceived as a caretaker filling up for Metsola until she takes charge. This may weaken his control over a party making it more vulnerable to in- ternal strife. For if his authority is not respected chaos may ensue. The Hamrun incident in which a supporter was assaulted after Grech was not allowed in the party club was a reminder of how precarious the situation in the party remains. Much now depends on what has been said between Grech and Metsola and whether they are on the same page, regarding their fu- ture intentions. At this stage the best scenar- io for the party is one in which Grech is willingly ready to step down and Metsola is ready to take over. In this scenario Met- sola could help Grech secure a third seat, thus enabling him to step down on a high note having achieved his declared aim. If such an understanding exists both can coordinate a smooth transition which includes an honourable exit for Grech. The worse scenario for the par- ty is one in which Metsola re- mains undecided on her future ambitions especially if she still harbours ambitions for other top posts at EU level or in other inter- national organisations. This raises the prospect of Grech holding on to his post es- pecially if he manages to secure a third seat for the PN. A high rate of abstention among La- bour voters coupled by inroads by Metsola among floating voters may increase the likelihood of such a result. But this may well turn in to a pyrrhic victory for the PN. For Grech would then have to face Abela again in a general election where Labour may well recover a sizeable chunk of voters which abstain in the midterms. Moreover, in this scenario Met- sola risks disappointing all those who invested their trust in her in the hope that she would answer what they see as a call from desti- ny. By keeping them guessing she risks toying with their emotions, turning disappointment into re- sentment for her failure to heed their call. But how justified are the expec- tations of a turn-around for the PN if Metsola takes over? EU council President Donald Tusk's experience in Poland shows that a stellar performance in EU in- stitutions does not necessarily translate in success in national elections. Her performance in last Wednesday's mass meeting, offers some clues on her strengths and weaknesses and her potential as a leader. "Your own personal Metsola" Mestola's greatest strength is that of sticking to a script which appeals to the least common denominator while still sound- ing uplifting, one which allows different segments of the PN's complex electorate to conjure up their own Metsola. Like Jesus everyone can have his or her own personal Metsola. Even in her role as EU parlia- ment president Metsola excels in bland speeches full of platitudes but still sounding refreshing and