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4 NEWS 28.9.2023 KURT SANSONE MALTA'S economy will grow by a mod- erate 4.4% next year and the deficit will decrease to 4.5%, forecasts presented in the pre-budget document unveiled by Clyde Caruana show. e Finance Minister gave a detailed macro-economic presentation to the social partners on Wednesday at the start of a consultation process leading to Budget 2024. e 124-page document is short on measures Caruana will include in the budget – presumably he will want to leave the surprise for budget day on 30 October – but is strong on economic analysis and policy statements. Even the widely-expected change to in- troduce a minimum 15% tax for corpo- rations, an imminent EU requirement, is mentioned but no timeline is given for its introduction. In his strongest emphasis during the business breakfast, Caruana said he had a moral obligation to ensure discipline in public spending. Inflation and wages On inflation, Caruana said 2023 would end with an average inflation rate of 5%. "Inflation is going down but it is still high and will remain so in the medium term," he said. He confirmed the COLA wage in- crease next January will be higher than last year's record of €9.90 but said the amount will be finalised later this month. MaltaToday reported last Sun- day that COLA is expected to deliver a wage increase of around €13 per week. Caruana did commit to ensure the minimum wage will remain tax free but made it clear government will not be subsidising any of the wage increases. "e COLA increase has to be paid by the employer and if any proposal reach- es my desk for government to absorb part of this increase it will simply join other papers in the in-tray and remain there," Caruana said emphatically. Wage developments in 2022 show that although nominal wages increased by 3.3%, higher prices outpaced wage growth leading to a decline in real wag- es. e document says inflation was con- tained by government's decision to shelter consumers and businesses from international price rises in fuel, energy, grains and animal fodder. Subsidies to keep prices stable in these key commodities have cost public cof- fers €514 million between the onset of the war in Ukraine and June 2023. e document does not contemplate a scenario where these subsidies are with- drawn as the European Commission is expecting member states to do but in his address Caruana insisted the budget had to take into account the wider European and international context. He said it was important people are sensitised to the level of indirect sup- port they were benefitting from through government's policy action to subsidise fuels and electricity. "If on 30 October I decide to withdraw the subsidy, motorists will see an im- mediate increase in the price of fuel at the pump of 45c per litre and electricity bills will increase substantially," Caruana cautioned. "I say this so that people do not take things for granted because with the hundreds of millions being spent to shield people and the economy much more could be done in other areas." He said the level of support could not be maintained for ever, acknowledging the pressure being made by the Europe- an Commission but hinted government will remain committed to keeping the subsidies next year. Vigilance and discipline in public spending Caruana said his ministry will contin- ue to implement its plan for "sustained reduction of the budget deficit and con- trolled government debt, to gradually align with the European Commission's fiscal rules". e forecasts presented in the docu- ment show that Malta will adopt a grad- ual path to deficit reduction going below the 3% deficit mark stipulated by the Maastricht criteria in 2027. e Finance Minister said 2023 will end with a deficit of 5%, an improve- ment from the 5.5% previously forecast, and projected a further decline to 4.5%. "For this plan to be successful, further vigilance, action and firm decisions shall be required. ese decisions will be tak- en boldly," Caruana reiterated. He said it was imperative that govern- ment spending be judicious, stressing the need for fiscal discipline. "I have a moral and political obligation that the country's finances are spent wisely, even if it means I am viewed in a bad light… we need to be sober because uncontrolled spending will always pun- ish those on the lower rungs and that is something I cannot live with," Caruana said. e Finance Minister said Malta's debt-to-GDP ratio is and will remain below the 60% threshold. Figures show that Malta's debt will hit 53.2% by the end of 2023 and is forecasted to increase to 54.5% next year. "Debt remains the most important metric and Malta remains in a very strong position," Caruana said. 'Budget still in the making' At a post-launch briefing for journal- ists Caruana insisted the budget "is still in the making" when asked whether he will consider cutting personal tax. is was the standard reply when asked about other possible measures. However, he was clear in his com- mitment that subsidies on fuel, ener- gy, gas, animal fodder and grains will be kept in 2024 despite the European Commission's pressure on countries to start withdrawing support. "We explained our position to the European Commission and we can still achieve the aims it set out to re- duce the deficit [without withdrawing the subsidies]," he said without giving any indication as to when and how Malta will start phasing out the sub- sidies. On the expected high COLA increase and employer fears it will lead to fur- ther fuel inflation, Caruana insisted there was no evidence yet of a wage-in- flation spiral. However, he anticipated that over time the profit buffers of some com- panies could be eroded to compensate employees instead of passing on the cost to consumers, which could make them uncompetitive. Asked about the Chamber of Com- merce's proposal for a cap on non-EU nationals employed by companies, Caruana said any such decision would have to be analysed carefully. "Any decision taken has to truly work and not create a negative impact on the labour market. Let us do what we have to do without causing shocks to the economy," he said. Clyde Caruana stresses need for discipline in public spending BUDGET 2024 Finance Minister Clyde Caruana unveiling the pre-budget document 2024 Finance Minister unveils pre-budget document that is short on measures but strong on economic analysis and policy statements • Consultation opens for Budget 2024

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