Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1509248
16 SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 8 OCTOBER 2023 JAMES DEBONO THE Nationalist Party enjoys a relative majority and is leading the Labour Party by two points as more Labour voters park themselves in the ever-growing non-voter camp. MaltaToday's October survey shows that support for the PN now stands at 45.8% against the PL's 43.8%. Other parties col- lectively enjoy the support of 10.5% of the electorate. The gap between the two major parties stands at 4,858 votes based on what would be a historically low turnout of 69%. The turnout here refers to valid votes cast as a percentage of all eligible voters. The difference between the major parties falls within the survey's margin of error. But even when this factor is taken into ac- count the results represent a sharp rever- sal of fortune for the PL which enjoyed a 39,474-vote majority and a 13-point lead over its main rival in the 2022 general elec- tion. This is the first polling exercise conducted with a new methodology whereby undecid- ed voters are attributed a voting intention (including non-voting) based on several criteria assessed in the survey. This gives a result that is closer to what one would ex- pect in a general election. This change in method means the results cannot be com- pared to those of previous MaltaToday sur- veys. Labour retaining fewer voters Labour's decline is mostly attributable to the party's lower retention rate of 2022 vot- ers. While the PN retains 77% of 2022 gen- eral election voters, the PL only manages to retain 58% of its former voters. The PL's lower voting retention rate is mainly the result of a higher percentage of its 2022 voters who now intend to abstain. While only 14% of PN voters are now intent on not voting, the percentage of non-voters increases to a staggering 29% among PL voters. The survey also indicates a marginal shift from the PL to the PN. While 7% of PL vot- ers in 2022 now intend voting for the PN, this is partially mitigated by a contrary shift since 4% of PN voters now intend voting for the PL. Labour also marginally loses more votes to third parties than the PN. While the PN loses 5% of its voters to third parties, the PL loses 6%. The survey also shows a substantial 11% of voters opting for an assortment of third parties, which includes independents and parties ranging from the progressive Alter- nattiva Demokratika led by Sandra Gauci to far right outfits like the Partit Popolari. In the 2022 election only 3.2% had voted for third parties and independents. Third parties are strongest among younger and more educated voters. A third of voters will not vote The most striking aspect of the survey is that 31% of all voters will not vote if an elec- tion is held now. This means that Maltese voters are roughly split in three large camps – PN, PL and non-voters – and a smaller category of third-party voters. Significantly respondents aged between 36 and 50, who are in the prime of their PN's relative majority mostly attributable to PL's lower retention of 2022 voters • 29% of PL voters declare their intention of not voting • 10.5% of committed voters opt for third parties • Election turnout would be 69% PN enjoys two-point lead as Voting by political allegiance