Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1509422
ANALYSIS 14 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 11 OCTOBER 2023 MALTATODAY'S latest survey suggests that non-voters are now more likely to have voted for the Labour Party in 2022 and peak in PL-leaning regions. Their numbers have also increased among people in the middle of their working life (aged between 35 and 50), and those with a secondary level of ed- ucation. These figures tell us who non-voters are but does the survey give an indica- tion on their future political choices? 1. Higher abstention rate is an estab- lished trend and not a statistical blip The MaltaToday survey published on Sunday shows that 31% of voters will not be voting if a general election is held now. A Times of Malta survey using a similar methodology in June had reg- istered an abstention rate of 28%. This suggests that the high rate of non-vot- ers is no statistical blip but a constant feature in most published surveys. Since there is no general election looming on the horizon, this abnor- mally high abstention rate also reflects electoral fatigue a year and a half after general elections in 2022. One would expect that when an election is really on the horizon, the figures will go down simply because the electoral machines of both parties will be set in motion. Abstention could also be a sign of waning political loyalties as the country slowly moves in the direction of other western democracies whose turnout is rarely above the 80% mark. But if this is the case one would expect the abstention rate to penalise both the Labour and the Nationalist parties equally. Contrary to what was the case before the 2022 election when absten- tion was higher among former PN vot- ers, non-voters now prevail among La- bour voters. 2. Labour substantially losing more votes to abstention then the PN The survey shows that abstention is stronger among those who voted PL in the 2022 general election. While 29% of 2022 Labour voters are now intent on not voting, the figure falls to 14% among PN voters. This suggests dissat- isfaction with the government among PL voters, who, however, are unwilling to cross the Rubicon by voting for the opposition party. This represents a turnaround from October 2022 when in a MaltaToday survey using a different methodology only 8% of PL voters declared their in- tent to abstain in contrast to 21% of PN voters. This is confirmed by a higher absten- tion rate in Labour leaning areas like the South-eastern region where abstention reaches the 36% mark and the Southern Harbour region where it reaches 31.6%. In both districts the PN also registers dismal support that is below the 25% mark. This is an indication that dissat- isfied Labour voters are simply parking themselves on neutral ground. The risk for any PN strategy relying on a high abstention rate among Labour voters is that fear of a PN victory may well push some of these voters back to Labour's fold. Therefore, even if the PN fails to win these voters over it must ensure they do not feel threatened by a change in government. The survey offers no indication on whether 2022 Labour voters intent on not voting are traditional hard core PL supporters – and very unlikely to even consider voting PN - or floaters, who may have given their vote to the PN in the past. To win an election the PN needs a strategy to lure back the latter while re- ducing the 'fear factor' that could drive the former back to Labour. 3. Trust barometer shows non-voters unimpressed by Bernard Grech The Trust Barometer shows that only 2% of current non-voters trust Bernard Grech. A more significant 24% trust Robert Abela. The likelihood of future PN inroads among non-voters is dampened by Grech's low trust rating. Grech's un- popularity among non-voters may prove to be a stumbling block for the PN as it tries to forge a path to victory. Moreover, although 74% of non-voters trust neither leader a significant 24% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has some space to grow among those intent on not voting. In fact, while 29% of PL voters are presently intent on not voting, the percentage of PL voters who trust neither leader falls to 24%. Yet, it will be harder for Labour to recover the sizeable category of ex Labour voters who are not only intent on not voting but who also have no trust in either of the two leaders. 4. Majority of non-voters in 2022 elec- tion who were more PN leaning are not coming back to either party One reason why abstention is now lower among PN voters and higher among PL voters, is that the opposition party has already lost heavily to absten- tion in the past election. This means the PN simply has less votes to shed. In this sense an obese Labour has far more ex- cess fat to lose then an underweight PN. In the 2022 election the PN had al- ready shed 12,463 votes from its 2017 vote count, while Labour had 'only' lost 8,269 votes from the previous election. The survey also suggests that 72% of those who did not vote in 2022 are per- severing in their choice and those com- ing back are equally split between PN, PL and third-party voters. Moreover 80% of these non-voters in 2022 trust neither Grech nor Abe- la, which makes them a harder nut to crack. 5. Abstention peaks among 36- to 50-year-olds, an indication this is not simply a lack of interest in politics normally associated with the youngest age group Unlike previous surveys showing a higher abstention rate among 16- to 35-year-olds, in this survey non-voters peak among 36- to 50-year-olds. This is a category which includes people at the They say they will not vote. But MaltaToday's October survey shows that at least a third of the electorate is intent on not voting. But who are these non-voters and what is the likelihood of them returning to the fold when a real election is on the horizon? JAMES DEBONO looks at their profile