Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1509870
8 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 18 OCTOBER 2023 ISRAEL - HAMAS WAR US President Joe Biden will to- day walk into a quagmire; vis- iting Israel as it prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza. Weighing on US strategists in their dealings with the Is- raeli government is a night- marish scenario as Biden treads the fine line between appearing to condone an on- going war crime in Gaza and restraining an ally whose ac- tions may trigger an escala- tion that can be unpredicta- ble and catastrophic. The nightmare scenario goes as follows: Israel initiates a ground offensive, further increasing the human cost of its operations. Containing the war to northern Gaza might prove impossible, especially as Hamas operatives are de- tected in the flow of people heading to the Rafah crossing in the south. Egypt is under increased pressure to open its doors, which Palestinians would view as another Nakba (the expulsion of thousands of Palestinians from their towns and villages in 1948). Egypt is likely to refuse, fearing desta- bilisation. But if it complies Hamas's infiltrations could turn the Sinai into a new Gaza. As the human cost in Palestine mounts, Hezbollah - a battle-hardened militia operating from Lebanon and Syria may feel compelled to react or display signs of pre- paring to do so. In response, Israel could take pre-emptive action, opening a northern front and potentially dragging Lebanon and Syria into the quagmire, with Iran either actively as- sisting its proxies or interven- ing directly. US aircraft carriers in the region might react by launch- ing strikes on Hezbollah and possibly Iran. Meanwhile, the West Bank erupts in violence as bullish right-wing settlers become emboldened, leading to a renewed cycle of violence and potentially more terror attacks in an unending spiral. In the background, Rus- sia stands to benefit directly from the depletion of west- ern ammunition depots as Israel demands more weap- ons. China might even seize an opportunity to strike at Taiwan as the West becomes overstretched as its complici- ty with Israel further weakens any semblance of moral lead- ership. Fiction or reality? This scenario may seem like geopolitical fiction, and sev- eral factors militate against its realisation. These include a reduced appetite for war in the region, the unwillingness of most Arab countries to be dragged into the abyss, and Iran's own survival instincts that might temper any de- sire for revenge on the part of Hezbollah, beyond symbolic skirmishes along the border. However, while the night- mare scenario may not fully materialise, a prolonged con- flict in the occupied territo- ries, including the West Bank, remains a likely possibility af- ter ground operations which offer little prospect of a long- term political solution. Even if Israel successfully cripples Hamas, thousands who have lost their homes and loved ones may end up stuck in refugee camps, which can become breeding grounds for terrorism. Furthermore, while Russia will probably remain aloof, already over stretched by its floundering invasion of Ukraine, it will still benefit from an erosion in the west's moral leader- ship in the face of accusa- tions of double standards in its treatment of Palestine and Ukraine. International legitimacy: Cover or bargaining chip? This explains why Biden's unconditional public sup- port for Israel could serve as a bargaining chip to restrain Israel and prevent an escala- tion. Israel needs internation- al legitimacy for its actions, and the US can provide cover, within certain red lines. For instance, the US has already ruled out Israel's reoccupa- tion of Gaza. However, the end game remains unclear. Who will be responsible for the fate of the displaced Gazans, their resettlement, and the reconstruction of the bombed-out territory? And who will govern Gaza after Hamas is defeated? Surely Fatah will be reluctant to take over out of fear of being seen as Israel's henchmen while people who lost their loved ones under Israeli bombs may well reconstitute Hamas or a new version of it. Moreover, the US's uncon- ditional support comes with the risk of being perceived in the Arab world as an ac- tive accomplice in ongoing war crimes in Gaza, with its medieval siege resulting in a significant human cost. This could provide ammunition for western critics, including Russia's Vladimir Putin. This is why the EU can ar- ticulate what Biden cannot. While the EU has limited in- fluence over Israel's actions, its support is crucial for le- gitimising US policy in the region. In short, the US can leverage Israel, while the EU, along with moderate Arab states, can condition the kind of support the US provides to Israel. Maintaining principles is crucial for the EU. Even EU self-interest supports containing the conflict and avoiding further escalation. So far, the EU has largely followed the US script with calls by European Commis- sion President Ursula Von der Leyen and EU parliament President Roberta Metsola for respect of international law, appearing as some sort of dis- claimer for unintended conse- quences of Israeli action. Others like the wise foreign The nightmare scenario: Are the eve of a global war? The human cost in terms of Palestinian and Israeli lives is already huge. But what are the risks of the conf lict escalating into a regional war that could intersect with other conf licts evoking the spectre of a wider global conf lagration, asks JAMES DEBONO.