Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1511356
17 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 12 NOVEMBER 2023 SURVEY JAMES DEBONO THE Labour Party is back in pole position in the af- termath of the budget with MaltaToday's November survey giving it a 9,000-vote lead over the Nationalist Party. Only last month, the PL was trailing the PN by near- ly 5,000 votes. The findings show that the PL enjoys the support of 49%, an increase of five points over October, and the PN 45.4%, a slight decrease of 0.4 points. Other parties collectively poll 5.6%, a decline of almost five points. The increase in support for Labour comes in the aftermath of a socially oriented budget targeting dis- advantaged categories like pensioners. The budget boost is reflected in significant gains among over 65-year-olds amongst which Labour has seen its sup- port increasing from 41% to 48%. But the survey confirms similar trends in past sur- veys, with the percentage of non-voters remaining at an all-time high of 31% and a turn out at a historical 69% low if an election is held now. The survey shows Labour recovering some ground among non-voters. The survey now shows 26% of PL voters in 2022 intent on not voting, down from 29% last month. The gap between the two major parties stands at 8,827 votes based on what would be a historically low turnout of 69%. But the decrease in turnout is still penalising the PL more than the PN. Labour loses 41,893 votes from its 2022 election tally, while the PN loses 11,246 votes. The turnout here refers to valid votes cast as a per- centage of all eligible voters. The difference between the major parties still falls within the survey's margin of error. Labour retaining more voters The survey shows Labour retaining a smaller per- centage of its 2022 general election voters than the PN. Labour's retention rate (the percentage of voters from the last general election that will vote for it again) increases from 58% last month to 61% now, the PN has seen its retention rate decrease from 77% to 67%. The PL's lower voting retention rate is still main- ly the result of a higher percentage of its 2022 voters who now intend to abstain. But while the percentage of PN voters in 2022 intent on not voting has now increased from 14% last month to 24% now, the percentage of PL voters in 2022 in- tent on not voting has decreased from 29% to 26%. The survey does not indicate any substantial shifts between the two major parties with corresponding gains made by both cancelling each other out. While 10% of PL voters in 2022 now intend voting for the PN, this is largely mitigated by a contrary shift of 8% of PN voters who now intend voting for the PL. But the PL also loses 3% of its vote to third parties while the PN only loses 1% of its 2022 voters to third par- ties. Grey vote rewards Labour The survey registers the most substantial gains for Labour among over 65-year-olds. Among this cate- gory the party has seen its support increase by seven points from 41% to 48%. In contrast the PN has seen its support in this category decline from 40% to 37%. The PN also loses four points among those aged be- tween 51 and 65. These gains by the PL correspond to a two-point decline in support for the PN. But a different picture emerges among under 50-year-olds where Labour fails to register any gains. Among those aged between 36 and 50, who are in the prime of their working lives and possibly raising children, the two parties are locked in a tie. Com- pared to last month the PL has gained four points while the PN has gained five points. The PN is also leading Labour by six points among younger voters aged between 16 and 35 years of age. Compared to last month the PN has gained two points while Labour has gained one point. A relative majority in both the 16- to 35-year-old age group (42.1%) and the 36- to 50-year-old age group (36%) are also intent on not voting. This clear- ly suggests that the budget had little effect in swaying younger voters towards Labour. PL winning in four of six regions Regionally, the largest percentage of non-voters is found in the politically nuanced Western region (34%) and the Labour leaning South-eastern region (33%). The survey shows Labour leading the PN in all re- gions except the North Harbour and the Western regions. The survey shows little change in the South-east- ern district where the PL still leads by a meagre sev- en points despite the PM's focus on environmental grievances in localities like Marsaskala. Labour also enjoys a significant 12-point lead in Gozo. Labour has also established a surprising eight- point lead in the Nationalist leaning Northern region but still trails the PN by 10 points in the North Har- bour region which includes major towns like Sliema, Qormi and Birkirkara. In a further indication that Labour has made in- roads among pensioners, a breakdown by education shows the PL commanding an absolute majority of 57% among those with a primary level of education, up from 48% last month. But among respondents with a secondary level of education, Labour's lead de- creases to just four points as was the case a month ago. The PN is also leading by three points among the post-secondary educated and by six points among the tertiary educated. Budget boost gives Labour 9,000-vote lead VOTING INTENTIONS PL 49.0% Other 5.6% PN 45.4% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 24.1% 30% 3.8% 42.1% 28.3% 28.9% 6.5% 36.4% 34.7% 29.7% 3.8% 31.9% 47.9% 37% 1.7% 13.4% PL PN Other Will not vote Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 53.4% 49.2% 40% 37.1% 51.5% Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 maltatoday SURVEY PL 49.0% Other 5.6% PN 45.4% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Northern N. Harbour S. Eastern S. Harbour Western Gozo PL PN Other Will not vote Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 Polling and market research since 2002 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 maltatoday SURVEY PL 49.0% Other 5.6% PN 45.4% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 PL 2022 PN 2022 No vote 2022 61.1% 9.9% 2.9% 26.1% 8% 66.8% 1.2% 24% 18.6% 24.5% 0.6% 56.2% PL PN Other Will not vote Voting Intentions All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 maltatoday SURVEY PL 49.0% Other 5.6% PN 45.4% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 24.1% 30% 3.8% 42.1% 28.3% 28.9% 6.5% 36.4% 34.7% 29.7% 3.8% 31.9% 47.9% 37% 1.7% 13.4% PL PN Other Will not vote Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 maltatoday SURVEY Voting intentions by age Voting intentions by region Voting intentions by 2022 vote