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8 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 15 NOVEMBER 2023 NEWS NEWS Abstention increases by 10-points JAMES DEBONO MALTATODAY'S post-budget survey shows no change in the overall percentage of non-voters with turnout remaining at a his- toric low of 69.5%. Abstention also remains higher among under 50-year- old voters and among those who have a post-secondary or tertiary level of education. But while in October only 14% of PN voters were intent on not voting compared to a stag- gering 29% of PL voters, the latest survey shows a marked increase in the proportion of Nationalist voters now intent on not voting. While the percentage of those who voted Labour in 2022 but are now saying they will not vote has dropped from 29% to 26%, the percentage of PN vot- ers now intent on abstaining has jumped from 14% to 24%. In this scenario the PL's na- tional four-point advantage over the PN can be attribut- ed to two factors - the PN's lower retention rate of 2022 voters and PL inroads among over 65-year-old voters among whom abstention is substan- tially lower than in other age brackets. The survey shows that while in October the PN had retained 77% of its 2022 voters, it is now retaining only 67%. In contrast, while in October the PL had only retained 57% of its 2022 voters, following the budget it is retaining 61%. The increase in the propor- tion of Nationalist non-voters suggests the PN cannot take its 2022 voters for granted. The party still finds it difficult to keep all of them on board. The PN's problems are com- pounded by the low trust rating of its leader among PN voters. The surveys shows that Grech is only trusted more than Abela by 46% of PN voters in 2022. This is particularly problem- atic for a party which is not making significant inroads among Labour voters who pre- fer parking themselves in the non-voters' camp. This means that the PN's only path to vic- tory in the short term, is to retain as much as possible its 2022 voters while hoping that Labour keeps on losing more voters to abstention. This was exactly the case in October when the PN's wafer thin advantage was mainly the result of Labour losing sub- stantially more votes to ab- stention, and the PN retaining a much larger share of its vot- ers. But the latest survey sug- gests that the PN's electorate remains volatile and prone to desertions, especially in peri- ods where Labour has wind in its sails, as was the case after the budget. Such a high main- tenance electorate may also re- quire strong leadership which can keep together a disparate coalition of voters. The problem for the PN now is that it is losing nearly as many votes to the non-voters camp as Labour while its gains among PL voters are being neutralised by corresponding losses to Labour. Labour winning in age group with highest turnout Another worrying trend for the PN is that Labour has made inroads among over 65-year- olds, where the abstention rate has not changed over the past month and remains stuck at a low 13%. This means that Labour's gains in this category are large- ly not attributable to a decrease in non-voters within its ranks. Within this age group the PL As was the case in October non-voters still account for 31.5% of the electorate. But MaltaToday's November survey shows a three-point decrease in the percentage of PL voters intent on not voting and a 10-point increase among PN voters Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 28.5% 18.2% 53.4% 30.8% 20% 49.2% 40% 22.8% 37.1% 51.5% 32.6% 15.9% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Profile of Non-voters Age Gender Regions Education 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 42.1% 36.4% 31.9% 12.8% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 All Voters Non-voters by age PL 49.0% Other 5.6% Age Gender Region Education Voting Intentions All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 maltatoday SURVEY

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