Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1511521
9 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 15 NOVEMBER 2023 NEWS 10-points among PN voters has seen its support shoot up by seven points. As a result of these gains the party has wid- ened the gap with the PN in this cohort from less than a point in October to 11 points now. This means that in the only age group where voting turn- out is close to normal levels, the PL is winning with a bigger margin. Boosted by a budget targeting pensioners, Labour has managed to consolidate its position among a cohort of voters who are more likely to go out and vote on election day. Moreover, the level of support for Labour in this age group (48%) is still slightly lower than Abela's trust rating (51.5%). This suggests that Labour still has some room to grow in this age group. Labour has also recovered its lead among 51- to 65-year-olds, amidst a four-point drop by the PN and a two-point increase in the abstention rate. The trend in both catego- ries of over 50-year-old voters where abstention rates are low- er is largely positive for Labour. But the survey suggests that Labour is facing a more diffi- cult task in recovering support among under 50-year-olds. The worrying signs for Labour One worrying indication for Labour is that it has made no gains among 36- to 50-year- olds despite a significant nine- point increase in turnout in this cohort. In this cohort the decrease in abstention has seen both par- ties increase their support and remain locked in a tie as they were last month. Even on a regional level a three-point drop in abstention in the Labour leaning South- eastern region has not seen La- bour increasing its seven-point lead. Also worrying for Labour is the high rate of abstention among those who continued their studies after secondary level but did not attend univer- sity, a category which leaned towards Labour in most post 2008 surveys but where absten- tion is sinking Labour. This category includes within it segments of the lower middle class which could be struggling with the cost of living, whose needs were partly addressed by the COLA increase and a high- er children allowance. But the survey suggests that this category was lukewarm on the budget, with only 21% saying that the budget had a positive impact on their lives. A substantial 40% of post-sec- ondary educated voters replied that the budget left them in the same position as before while 25% could not express a ver- dict. In this survey abstention in this category has increased from 37% in October to 42% now and has surpassed that among the university educated (36%). Within this strategic category where Labour was last month leading by a percentage point, the PN is now leading by three points. The PN is also leading by nearly six points among 16-to- 35-year-olds, a category in which a staggering 42% will not vote in a forthcoming election. But the survey suggests that Labour can recover some ground in this age group where Robert Abela is five points more popular than his par- ty and Grech is 12 points less popular than his own party. Abela is also 10 points more popular than his party among the post-secondary educated and three points more popu- lar than his party among 36- to 50-year-olds. Labour's path to regaining its super-majority largely de- pends on winning back support among under 50-year-olds and the post-secondary educated. The first step for Labour would be recovering those voters in these categories who trust Abela more than Grech. On the other hand, the PN's fortunes cannot depend on Labour losing votes to absten- tion, as it would remain vul- nerable to any Labour recovery among its own voters but needs a sustained effort to persuade non-voters that the PN can of- fer a better alternative, a task made even more difficult by Grech's low trust rating among both PN voters and current non-voters. 10% 0 Northern N. Harbour S. Eastern S. Harbour Western Gozo Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Profile of Non-voters Age Gender Regions Education 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Northern N. Harbour S. Eastern S. Harbour Western Gozo 28.8% 29% 33.2% 30.2% 34.4% 27.2% The survey was carried out was carried between 1st November 2023 and 9th November 2023 for which 637 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer a few of the questions for which they are treated as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and linear regression with predictive mean matching was used to replace certain missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted. The margin of error for this result 3.85% for a confidence interval of 95%. Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 56.9% 25.6% 17.5% 43.8% 23.3% 32.8% 34.3% 24% 41.8% 26.4% 23% 50.6% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Profile of Non-voters Age Gender Regions Education 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 14.7% 27.6% 42.4% 36.2% All Voters The survey was carried out was carried between 1st November 2023 and 9th November 2023 for which 637 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer a few of the questions for which they are treated as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and linear regression with predictive mean matching was used to replace certain missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted. The margin of error for this result 3.85% for a confidence interval of 95%. Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Female Male 38.1% 28.1% 33.8% 37.9% 19% 43.1% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Profile of Non-voters Age Gender Regions Education 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Female Male 28.4% 32.6% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 All Voters Non-voters by region Non-voters by education level Non-voters by gender