Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1512911
13 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 10 DECEMBER 2023 NEWS retention from 2022 election stands at 60% Mid income earners most likely not to vote A breakdown by declared income shows that abstention is lowest among those earning over €4,000 a month (23%) and peaks among those earning between €1,000 and €2,000 a month (32.9%), and among those earning between €2,000 and €3,000 monthly (32.7%). This suggests that disgruntlement with the political class is stronger among middle income earners whose purchas- ing power is impacted by rising infla- tion. Support for third parties also peaks among those earning €2,000 and €3,000 a month (10.8%). The findings show Labour leading in all categories except among those earn- ing between €3,000 and €4,000 a month, among which the PN leads by a whisker. In contrast, Labour enjoys its high- est levels of support at both ends of the spectrum; among both those earning less than €1,000 a month (36.5%) and among those earning more than €4,000 a month (38.3%). PL leads among over 50s A breakdown by age shows the PL lead- ing the PN by 5 points among both 51- to 65-year-olds and over 65-year-olds. But the two parties are practically level among 16- to 35-year-olds and 36- to 50-year- olds, two categories which include the highest percentage of non-voters. In both categories non-voters outnumber both PL and PN voters. North-south divide Regionally, the largest percentage of non-voters is found in the politically nu- anced Western region (37.7%) and the Labour-leaning South-Eastern region (33.7%). The survey shows Labour leading the PN in the South Harbour region, the South Eastern region and Western re- gion while the PN is leading in the North Harbour, the Northern region and Gozo. Support for third parties is highest in the North Harbour region (8.4%). For the first time the survey shows non-voters (33%) outnumbering both PN (31.8%) and PL voters (28.4%) in Gozo. Post-secondary blues A breakdown by educational level at- tained shows Labour leading in all cate- gories except the tertiary educated where the PN leads by 10 points. In a further indication of disgruntlement among the lower middle class, the largest percentage of non-voters is found among respond- ents with a post-secondary level of edu- cation, a category which includes people with a technical and vocational educa- tional background. In this category where Labour now en- joys a fragile 2-point lead, non-voters constitute a relative majority of 37.6%. The survey shows third party voters peak- ing at 10.7% among respondents with a university degree and at 7.7% among the post-secondary educated. Methodology The survey was carried between 28 November 2023 and 6 December 2023 for which 650 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified ran- dom sampling based on region, gen- der and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the sur- vey chose not to answer a few of the questions for which they are treat- ed as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to deter- mine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and linear regression with predictive mean matching where applicable was used to replace certain missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted. The margin of error for this result 3.84% for a confidence interval of 95%. Age 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 25.8% 25.8% 8.4% 40.1% 28.6% 27.4% 7.2% 36.8% 33.7% 28.6% 7.3% 30.4% 42.7% 37.5% 4.3% 15.6% PL PN Other Will not vote Age 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 32.8% 14.3% 52.9% 35.6% 15.2% 49.2% 33.8% 16.9% 49.3% 46.4% 35.7% 17.9% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Trust Barometer Profile of Non-voters All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 37.5 21.1 41.3 All Voters Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Gender 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40 .0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Female Male 32.1% 30.8% 6.6% 30.5% 34% 29.4% 6.8% 29.8% PL PN Others Will not vote Gender 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Female Male 34.3% 20.4% 45.3% 40.9% 21.9% 37.2% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Trust Barometer Profile of Non-voters Gender 45% All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 37.5 21.1 41.3 All Voters Nov 2023 Dec 2023 PL 47.3% Other 9.6% PN 43.1% Education 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Primary Secondary Post-secondary Tertiary 54.7% 23.9% 4.4% 17% 37.1% 31.6% 3.9% 27.4% 28.5% 26.3% 7.7% 37.6% 22.8% 33% 10.7% 33.2% PL PN Other Will not vote Education 80% 70% Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 37.5 21.1 41.3 All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 maltatoday SURVEY PL 47.3% Other 9.6% PN 43.1% Region 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Northern N. Harbour S. Eastern S. Harbour Western Gozo PL PN Other Will not vote Region 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 31.3% 26.3% 42.4% 32.6% 29.4% 38.1% 44.2% 42.4% 48.4% 36.1% 36.1% 47% 33% 42.6% Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 37.5 21.1 41.3 All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 maltatoday SURVEY PL 47.3% Other 9.6% PN 43.1% Monthly income 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Less than €1,000 Between €1,001 to €2,000 Between €2,001 to €3,000 Between €3,001 to €4,000 More than €4,000 36.5% 30.7% 5.8% 27.1% 31.5% 29.2% 6.3% 32.9% 26.9% 29.7% 10.8% 32.7% 28.6% 32.5% 7.3% 31.6% 38.3% 30.8% 7.9% 23% PL PN Other Will not vote Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech 37.5 21.1 Polling and market research since 2002 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 maltatoday SURVEY Voting intentions by age Voting intentions by gender Voting intentions by region Voting intentions by monthly income