Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1513064
12 OPINION maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 13 DECEMBER 2023 Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham Tetyana Malyarenko is Professor of International Relations, National University Odesa Law Academy WHEN the EU's heads of state and government come togeth- er in Brussels for their final European Council meeting of the year on December 14 and 15, their agenda is likely to be dominated by the war in Ukraine. As you'd expect, the war has an agenda item of its own – but it is also central to discussions on enlargement, the budget and European defence. Deci- sions made at this meeting will have far-reaching implications – not only for Ukraine but also for the EU. The EU has to balance its in- ternal cohesion with its foreign and security policies, includ- ing preserving its appetite and capacity for further enlarge- ment. This presents Brussels and member states with some important challenges. First, Hungary's prime min- ister, Victor Orbán, has been very clear that he does not support continued EU funding of Ukraine's war effort. This is partly a gambit by Orbán to unlock approximately €22 billion (£19 billion) of EU aid to Hungary frozen because of concerns over judicial inde- pendence, academic freedom and LGBTQ+ rights in Hun- gary. Another issue concerns the situation of Ukraine's Hun- garian minority, which Orbán claims has been neglected and discriminated against by Kyiv. There appears to be some progress on unfreezing EU aid to Hungary, with the Europe- an Commission approving an initial payout of about €900 million in November. And, in terms of minority rights, a bill addressing this issue was signed into law on December 8 as part of a tranche of legisla- tion designed to ease Ukraine's entry to the EU. But given Orbán's close re- lationship with Russia's pres- ident, Vladimir Putin, it is not clear whether this will be enough to get Orbán to drop his veto. Should the Hungarian pre- mier persist, the EU's next budget is also in peril. This would prevent the unlocking of €50 billion of aid for Ukraine and block a proposed increase in the EU's defence spending. This will have to increase sig- nificantly in the years to come because developing Europe- an capabilities to deter future Russian aggression is essential for the EU's security. A potential second Trump presidency puts question marks on US commitments to Nato and there is a danger of further increasing tensions with China in the Pacific dis- tracting the US from Euro-At- lantic defence. Where does this leave Ukraine? These and other challenges faced by the EU leave Ukraine in increasing peril. With US funding running out by the end of the year and no clear path to its renewal, Kyiv depends more and more on its Europe- an partners. Equally worrying, new aid commitments are now at their lowest level since Jan- uary 2022. The EU has overtaken the US as the largest donor of committed military aid. How- ever, this is not an indication of broad European support, but the result of the efforts of a small core of countries, in- cluding Germany and Scandi- navia. Military aid is essential to Ukraine's survival, but it is not sufficient. If the EU does not approve its proposed €50 billion support for Kyiv, the country's economic surviv- al would be at risk because of the massive budget deficit that Ukraine keeps accumulating due to its war effort. A failure by the EU to open accession negotiations would also exacerbate the blame game at the top between Ukraine's political and military leaders and the squabbling between government and opposition over Kyiv's war strategy. Is Kyiv fighting a losing battle? For now, Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has dou- bled down on his efforts to defeat Russia militarily by an- nouncing more, and more ef- fective, mobilisation of troops. But, in light of a failed coun- teroffensive this year, he has also conceded that more needs to be done to increase defenc- es across the entire almost 1,000km frontline with Russia. With Russia announcing a further increase in its armed forces by 170,000 new recruits to over 1.3 million service- men in total, there can be lit- tle doubt that the shift on the battlefield in Russia's favour is gaining momentum. Even if the European Coun- cil meeting in Brussels later this week delivers the opening of accession negotiations and more financial aid, further ter- ritorial losses, such as around Avdiivka, and another Russian campaign against Ukraine's critical infrastructure over the winter would prove difficult for Kyiv and raise more ques- tions about the sustainability of western support. This leaves Ukraine and the EU with difficult choices to make. The accession process will be long, costly and pro- tracted. Major challenges lie ahead in terms of the neces- sary reforms Kyiv needs to Why does the EU want to lower the driving age to 17? To boost Europe's automotive industry, of course… Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen