Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1513668
6 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 24 DECEMBER 2023 Looking back 2023 An identikit of the non-voter IN three consecutive MaltaToday surveys carried out in autumn, a third of respondents have de- clared their intention not to vote if an election is held now. If this happens in a general elec- tion the turnout will go down to a historic low of 69%. The turnout in the 2022 general election stood at 86%. Non-voters in autumn 2023 in- creased sharply when compared to December 2022 when 22% de- clared their intention not to vote. The decline in turnout is also confirmed in other surveys. A Times of Malta survey published in October had put the percentage of non-voters at 28%. Moreover, the decline in turnout corresponded with a sharp decline in Labour's fortunes in a clear indication that disgruntlement among Labour voters has fuelled abstention. This abnormally high abstention rate may well reflect electoral fa- tigue almost two years after the general election. Party strategists expect the abstention rate to re- duce when the electoral machines of both major parties are set in motion closer to a general elec- tion. At that point the choice is not an abstract one but a decision on who should govern the coun- try. But the trend may well persist in the European Parliament and local council elections due next June, where voters would not be choosing which party governs the country. These elections have of- ten been used by the electorate to blow a raspberry without having to worry on choosing the lesser evil. Who are they? To get a more precise idea of who the non-voters are, Malta- Today is extracting a profile based on the average percentage in each demographic group. The findings are based on the results of 2023's last three surveys. The picture emerging from this analysis is that non-voters are more likely to be male, under 50 years of age, have a higher level of education, hail from the Western and Southeastern regions, earn a monthly income of between €1,000 and €3,000 and voted La- bour in 2022. On a political level the analy- sis shows that an average of 30% of Labour voters in 2022 will not vote if an election is held now, compared to 20% of PN voters. In this case the percentage of Labour voters who would not vote varied between 26% in November and 34% in December. On the other hand, the percent- age of PN voters who would not vote varied between 14% in Oc- tober and 24% in November. This suggests that although both par- ties are losing votes to abstention, Labour is being penalised more by this phenomenon. Labour's decline in support from election levels is mostly attribut- able to its lower retention rate of 2022 voters. Yet, the PN is not benefitting from Labour's mid-term blues. Disgruntled Labourites are park- ing themselves in neutral terri- tory rather than shifting towards the PN. Moreover, the PN keeps turning off a substantial percent- age of its own voters. And while it is not so surpris- ing that a party which has been in government for the past dec- ade is faced with disgruntlement, abstention within the PN suggests that the party's brand is so toxic that it not only fails to attract vot- ers from the other side who prefer 'not voting' but it also keeps losing from its already restricted pool of voters. In fact, in a situation where a third of Labour voters are intent on not voting, the PN would be clearly in the lead had it retained its 2022 voters. This means that if non-voters start returning to La- bour, the PN could well end up in the same situation it was back in the 2022 general election. Why is Labour losing more to ab- stention? One reason why abstention is now lower among PN voters and higher among PL voters, is that the Opposition party has already lost heavily to abstention in past elections. This means the PN sim- ply has less votes to shed. In this sense an obese Labour has far more excess fat to lose than an underweight PN. In the 2022 election the PN had already shed 12,463 votes from its 2017 vote count, while Labour had 'only' lost 8,269 votes from the previous election. But the fact that an anorexic PN keeps losing votes to abstention is further confirma- tion of the state it is in. The analysis also shows that an average of 63% of respondents who had not voted in 2022 are still keen on not voting now. This sug- gests not voting is not just a mo- mentary rant but can persist over time. Moreover, this is also an in- dication that the PN still struggles to win back the voters it lost to ab- stention in 2022. Under 50-year-olds more likely not to vote The surveys also confirm past trends that younger voters are more likely to consider absten- tion. But over the past months ab- stention has also made inroads in all age groups except those over 65 years of age. On average 40% of respondents aged between 16 and 35, and 39% of those aged between 36 and 50 will not vote. This suggests that abstention is not limited to disil- lusioned younger voters but in- cludes a significant segment of voters at the peak of their working lives and who are more likely to have dependent children. Also significant is the fact that abstention remains at a relative- ly high 31% even among 51- to 65-year-olds and only falls signif- icantly among over 65-year-olds, where it dips to 14%. On average males are also more likely to declare their intention not to vote. While abstention among male voters hovers around 33%, the abstention rate among female voters falls to 29%. Cutting across the board In the past a higher abstention rate in affluent PN leaning dis- tricts suggested that non-voters prevailed among the more edu- cated and wealthier. But although abstention remains strong among the tertiary educat- ed and in high income brackets, the latest surveys indicate an in- crease in abstention in other so- cial categories including the lower middle class. This suggests that non-voters are a very heterogenous group. The analysis shows that the ab- stention rate is highest among post-secondary educated voters i.e., respondents who continued their education after secondary level but who have not attended university. This category includes people in vocational and technical jobs. The high level of abstention in this category is very worry- ing for Labour which since 2008 had made major inroads among post-secondary educated voters. This suggests that abstention is not a preserve of more affluent middle-class voters who are more likely to have a university degree and historically lean towards the PN. In fact, while before 2022 absten- tion peaked among the tertiary educated, it now peaks among the post-secondary educated. While on average 39% of the post-secondary educated will not be voting, the percentage falls to 35% among the tertiary educated and to 29% among the secondary educated. Abstention is lowest (14%) among those with a primary level of education who are mostly over 65 years of age. A breakdown by income shows that 33% of those earning a monthly income of between €1,000 and €2,000, and between €2,001 and €3,000 will not vote. Similarly, 32% of those earning between €3,001 and €4,000 will also not vote. But lower rates of abstention are registered among those earning less than €1,000 (27.1%) and those earning more MaltaToday surveys held in the past three months have consistently shown that 31% of respondents will not vote if an election is held now. But who are these non-voters asks JAMES DEBONO.