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15 NEWS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 17 JANUARY 2024 on what they determine to be "true". Freedoms relating to the internet, press and access to wider sources of infor- mation that are already in decline risk descending into broader repression of information flows across a wider set of countries. Economic strains on low- and mid- dle-income people – and countries – are set to grow The Cost-of-living crisis remains a major concern in the outlook for 2024 (Figure B). The economic risks of Infla- tion (#7) and Economic downturn (#9) are also notable new entrants to the top 10 risk rankings over the two-year peri- od (Figure C). Although a "softer land- ing" appears to be prevailing for now, the near-term outlook remains highly uncertain. There are multiple sources of continued supply-side price pres- sures looming over the next two years, from El Niño conditions to the poten- tial escalation of live conflicts. And if interest rates remain relative- ly high for longer, small- and medi- um-sized enterprises and heavily in- debted countries will be particularly exposed to debt distress. Economic uncertainty will weigh heavily across most markets, but capi- tal will be the costliest for the most vul- nerable countries. Climate-vulnerable or conflict-prone countries stand to be increasingly locked out of much-needed digital and physical infrastructure, trade and green investments and related eco- nomic opportunities. As the adaptive capacities of these fragile states erodes further, related societal and environ- mental impacts are amplified. Similarly, the convergence of techno- logical advances and geopolitical dy- namics will likely create a new set of winners and losers across advanced and developing economies alike. If commercial incentives and geopo- litical imperatives, rather than public interest, remain the primary drivers of the development of artificial intelli- gence (AI) and other frontier technol- ogies, the digital gap between high- and low-income countries will drive a stark disparity in the distribution of related benefits – and risks. Vulnerable countries and communi- ties would be left further behind, dig- itally isolated from turbocharged AI breakthroughs impacting economic productivity, finance, climate, educa- tion and healthcare, as well as related job creation. Over the longer term, developmental progress and living standards are at risk. Economic, environmental and techno- logical trends are likely to entrench ex- isting challenges around labour and so- cial mobility, blocking individuals from income and skilling opportunities, and therefore the ability to improve eco- nomic status. Lack of economic opportunity is a top 10 risk over the two-year period, but is seemingly less of a concern for global decision-makers over the longer-term horizon, dropping to #11. High rates of job churn – both job creation and de- struction – have the potential to result in deeply bifurcated labour markets be- tween and within developed and devel- oping economies. While the productivity benefits of these economic transitions should not be underestimated, manufacturing- or services-led export growth might no longer offer traditional pathways to greater prosperity for developing coun- tries. The narrowing of individual path- ways to stable livelihoods would also impact metrics of human development – from poverty to access to education and healthcare. Marked changes in the social contract as intergenerational mo- bility declines would radically reshape societal and political dynamics in both advanced and developing economies. Simmering geopolitical tensions com- bined with technology will drive new security risks As both a product and driver of state fragility, Interstate armed conflict is a new entrant into the top risk rankings over the two-year horizon (Figure C). As the focus of major powers becomes stretched across multiple fronts, con- flict contagion is a key concern. There are several frozen conflicts at risk of heating up in the near term, due to spill- over threats or growing state fragility. This becomes an even more worrying risk in the context of recent technologi- cal advances. In the absence of concert- ed collaboration, a globally fragmented approach to regulating frontier technol- ogies is unlikely to prevent the spread of its most dangerous capabilities and, in fact, may encourage proliferation. Over the longer-term, technological advances, including in generative AI, will enable a range of non-state and state actors to access a superhuman breadth of knowledge to conceptualize and develop new tools of disruption and conflict, from malware to biological weapons. The growing internationalization of conflicts by a wider set of powers could lead to deadlier, prolonged warfare and overwhelming humanitarian crises. With multiple states engaged in proxy, and perhaps even direct warfare, incen- tives to condense decision time through the integration of AI will grow. The creep of machine intelligence into conflict decision-making – to autono- mously select targets and determine ob- jectives – would significantly raise the risk of accidental or intentional escala- tion over the next decade. Ideological and geoeconomic divides will disrupt the future of governance A deeper divide on the international stage between multiple poles of pow- er and between the Global North and South would paralyze international governance mechanisms and divert the attention and resources of major pow- ers away from urgent global risks. Asked about the global political out- look for cooperation on risks over the next decade, two-thirds of GRPS respondents feel that we will face a multipolar or fragmented order in which middle and great powers con- test, set and enforce regional rules and norms. Over the next decade, as dissat- isfaction with the continued dominance of the Global North grows, an evolving set of states will seek a more pivotal in- fluence on the global stage across mul- tiple domains, asserting their power in military, technological and economic terms. As states in the Global South bear the brunt of a changing climate, the aftereffects of pandemic-era crises and geoeconomic rifts between major pow- ers, growing alignment and political al- liances within this historically disparate group of countries could increasingly shape security dynamics, including im- plications for high-stakes hotspots: the Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict and tensions over Taiwan. Coordinated efforts to isolate "rogue" states are likely to be increasingly fu- tile, while international governance and peacekeeping efforts shown to be inef- fective at "policing" conflict could be sidelined. Opportunities for action to address global risks in a fragmented world Cooperation will come under pressure in this fragmented, in-flux world. How- ever there remain key opportunities for action that can be taken locally or in- ternationally, individually or collabora- tively – that can significantly reduce the impact of global risks. Localized strategies leveraging invest- ment and regulation can reduce the impact of those inevitable risks that we can prepare for, and both the public and private sector can play a key role to ex- tend these benefits to all. Single breakthrough endeavours, grown through efforts to prioritize the future and focus on research and de- velopment, can similarly help make the world a safer place. The collective actions of individual citizens, companies and countries may seem insignificant on their own, but at critical mass they can move the needle on global risk reduction. Finally, even in a world that is increas- ingly fragmented, cross-border collabo- ration at scale remains critical for risks that are decisive for human security and prosperity. The next decade will usher in a peri- od of significant change, stretching our adaptive capacity to the limit. A multiplicity of entirely different futures is conceivable over this time frame, and a more positive path can be shaped through our actions to address global risks today. report highlights risks for 2024 High-stakes hotspots: the Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict and tensions over Taiwan could increasingly shape global security dynamics in 2024