Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1514782
13 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 21 JANUARY 2024 ANALYSIS magnanimity or convenience? any sympathy for Keith Schem- bri, the architect of Labour's stratospheric victories in 2013 and 2017, who was already sin- gled out by Abela as "that cuck- old who fucked" Muscat, dur- ing a fateful Cabinet meeting before Muscat's resignation. It is highly improbable that any of the three will ever be re- habilitated. Yet all three were interdicted in the absence of any political verdict on the Muscat era. 'My friend' Joseph Muscat: the one he dares not judge Joseph Muscat remains a prickly thorn in Abela's side but one which is too dangerous for him to pluck. And here lies the weakness of Abela's position. Had Abe- la distanced himself politically from Muscat back in 2020 he may well be less exposed to- day from any fall-out from the magisterial inquiry on the Vi- tals deal. In fact, it is hard not to see the latest dispensations of forgiveness to perceived mi- nor political allies of Muscat, as olive branches to the former leader or attempts to defuse in- ternal tensions before a possi- ble arraignment of the former leader. And by recently referring to Muscat as a friend, Abela is sending a message to the grass- roots that he has not aban- doned the beloved former lead- er to his fate. But in the worst-case scenar- io of an arraignment the same grassroots will also ask 'what is Abela doing now to help a friend in need?' Perhaps Abela wants to avert any perception that he is complicit in any judi- cial decision to arraign Muscat. But as a result, he is raising ex- pectations of a showdown with the judiciary, which Abela is not so keen on. The (electoral) logic behind magnanimity Beyond internal balanc- ing acts, there is also a crude electoral calculation in Abe- la' s decision to offer politi- cal redemption. With surveys showing thousands of Labour- ites threatening not to vote in forthcoming midterm elec- tions, Abela is trying to stop the hemorrhage, fully knowing that the least thing he needs now is to be badmouthed by party stalwarts who command a loyal constituency. Moreover, despite her frank admission of eating from the pigs' trough, the indomitable Rosianne Cutajar remains pop- ular among the party's grass- roots, partly because of demo- nisation from the other side, on which she thrives. Abela knows that he can't afford to have former Labour MPs vindicating the absten- tion of his constituents. And Justyne Caruana now may also fill a vacancy in the strategic Gozo district, amidst specu- lation of a prospective MEP candidature following Josianne Cutajar's decision not to con- test the district. Still, rehabilitating her and others guilty of so-called mis- demeanours risks alienat- ing another segment of La- bour's electoral bloc: voters who switched to Labour after being attracted by Muscat's promise of a more modern, meritocratic, open and social- ly liberal country; an alluring roadmap that was derailed by Panamagate and its spin-offs. While Abela is willing to pan- der to the constituencies of errant MPs who damaged the party's good governance cre- dentials, he seems less eager to address the concerns of lo- cal communities in Labour's heartlands like Santa Lucija, swamped by over-develop- ment. The question is what is Abela doing to motivate those vot- ers who still shun the PN and yearn for progressive changes, but who are increasingly frus- trated by the PM's antics? His calculation may well be that in MEP elections, where turnout is bound to be low, it is the party which is most ef- fective in mobilising its core voters – including constituents of errant MPs – which is best poised to win. jdebono@mediatoday.com.m By recently referring to Muscat as a friend, Abela is sending a message to the grassroots that he has not abandoned the beloved former leader to his fate Clockwise from top left: Rosianne Cutajar, Justyne Caruana, Chris Cardona, Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi