Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1515804
15 SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 11 FEBRUARY 2024 substantial Trust barometer: Abela leads Grech by 24 points Bernard Grech by a substantial margin in both regions. Moreover, Labour's losses in the south east are partly compensated by its inroads in the PN leaning northern district where it enjoys a two-point lead over the PN. La- bour's lead in the northern region corresponds to a strong perfor- mance of third parties (11%) in this region which includes local- ities like St Paul's Bay. Overall, the survey shows labour leading in four regions namely the south harbour, the western region, the northern region and Gozo and the PN leading in the north harbour and south eastern regions. Significantly, the two major par- ties are presently neck and neck or within five points of each oth- er in all regions except the south harbour region where Labour en- joys a massive 26-point lead. This suggests that Labour's attempts to lure back disgruntled voters in the region by increasing the rep- resentation of the Second District in the Cabinet has partly paid off. Richest and poorest are more likely to vote The survey shows that absten- tion is lowest among those earn- ing less than €1,000 (30%) month- ly and among those earning more than €4,000 (25%) monthly. These are two categories where Labour is leading the PN by six points. In contrast Labour enjoys a small- er four-point advantage among those earning between €1,000 and €2,000 while the PN leads by less than a point among those earning between €2,000 and €4,000. This suggests that Labour man- ages to hold onto a coalition which includes both low income groups benefitting from its welfare pol- icies and high income earners who benefit from its more laissez fair policies. But the party faces increased disgruntlement among middle income earners who are more likely to abstain. While abstention is higher among tertiary educated voters (45%), who traditionally lean to- wards the PN, it is also remarka- bly high among post-secondary educated voters (43%), a category which tilted towards Labour in most post-2008 surveys conduct- ed by MaltaToday. THE MaltaToday trust barometer shows Prime Minister Robert Abela increasing his trust lead over Opposition leader Bernard Grech by four points since December. Abela's trust rating now stands at 41.1% com- pared to Grech's 16.7%. The PN leader has seen his trust rating drop by four points since December and by seven points since November. This represents Grech's worst trust rating in the past year. The gap between the two leaders has in- creased from 14.4 points in November to 16.4 points in December and 24 points in January. But the survey also shows that a relative ma- jority of 42% up from 41% in December, trust neither of the two main political leaders. Majority of PN voters distrust Grech In a clear indication that Bernard Grech's lead- ership remains on shaky grounds, a staggering 51% of PN voters in the 2022 general election, trust neither of the two political leaders while a further 4% trust Abela. This means that only 46% of PN voters trust their leader down from 56% in December. Even among respondents who currently in- tend voting PN, 40% trust neither Grech nor Abela and only 53% trust Grech. This means that a segment of respondents do not trust Grech but would still vote PN. Grech's poor trust rating suggests that he re- mains his party's weakest link in contrast to Ab- ela who is trusted by 75% of PL voters in 2022, up from 71% in December. Moreover 94% of current PL voters trust Abela, up from 83% in the previous survey. This suggests that Abela's overtures to the party's grass roots by warming up to his predecessor Joseph Muscat may have paid off. Grech remains less trusted than Abela in the crucial category of current non-voters. In this category, while 26% trust Abela only 4.6% trust Grech. This means that Labour may have more room for future growth on election day. Still, despite retaining a substantial lead over Grech, the PL leader is still distrusted by a sub- stantial 25% of Labour voters in 2022. Distrust of leaders highest among middle in- come earners The survey shows that the highest percentage of respondents who trust neither of the two leaders is found among those earning between €2,000 and €3,000 a month. In this category a remarkable 57% trust neither of the two leaders. These are followed by those earning a month- ly income of between €1,000 and €2,000, among which 46% trust neither leader. Lower levels of distrust are registered by those earning less than €1,000 a month (33%), those earning between €3,000 and €4,000 a month (30%) and those earning more than €4,000 a month (51%). This suggests that distrust in the political establishment is highest among those in the middle-income brackets. This tallies with high levels of distrust among both post-secondary educated (46%) and tertiary educated voters (58%). And in a clear indication that the PN leader is not able to shore up support among the dis- gruntled middle class, Bernard Grech's trust rating falls to 10% among those earning be- tween €2,000 and €3,000 a month. Grech's trust rating is highest among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000 (32%) but falls to a miserable 4% among those earning more than €4,000. Curiously, Abela's trust rating is highest on the two opposite poles of the income spectrum; among those earning less than €1,000 (44%) and those earning more than €4,000 (46%). This suggests that by marrying social welfare with pro-business policies, Abela strikes a chord with both low income earners who were specifically targeted in the budget and the most affluent categories who benefit from Labour's economically liberal policies. But Abela's trust rating falls to 33% among those earning between €2,000 and €3,000 a month in an indication that this bracket, which does not benefit from welfare payments, is feel- ing the brunt of the pain caused by inflation. Majority of young voters distrust both leaders As was the case in December, the survey shows a higher level of distrust in the two lead- ers among the 16- to 35-year-olds (54%) and those aged between 36 and 50 (50%). But while Abela's trust rating ranges between 36% among 16- to 35-year olds and 44% among those aged between 36 and 50, Grech's trust rat- ing is more volatile ranging from a miserable 6% among 36- to 50-year olds to 33% among those aged over 65. Abela receives boost in south harbour In a clear indication that Abela's strategy of pandering to the party's grass roots has partly paid off, his trust rating in the south harbour region which includes Labour's Cottonera strongholds, has increased from 48% in Decem- ber to 54% now. But Abela did not make any substantial in- roads in the Labour leaning south eastern re- gion which includes localities like Marsaskala, Żurrieq and Birżebbuġa. In this electorally strategic district where Labour has made major inroads in the past decade, a relative majority of 44% trust neither of the two leaders. Signif- icantly, a relative majority also trusts neither leader in the PN-leaning northern (51%), north harbour (43%) and western districts (40%). But Abela enjoys a relative majority in Gozo (43%). Methodology The survey was carried between 28 November 2023 and 6 December 2023 for which 650 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer a few of the ques- tions for which they are treated as missing val- ues. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and linear re- gression with predictive mean matching where applicable was used to replace certain missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted. The margin of error for this result 3.84% for a confidence interval of 95%. Robert Abela's trust rating increases by four points since December amidst gains among 2022 Labour voters and respondents in the South Harbour region. Bernard Grech's trust rating slumps to a miserable 17% as a majority of PN voters desert their party leader. JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt