Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1515910
8 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 14 FEBRUARY 2024 ANALYSIS The midterm paradox: How Labour wins AT face value, the MaltaTo- day European election survey suggests the PN has narrowed the gap with Labour since the 2019 EP election. Five years ago, the gap be- tween the two major parties at the European election stood at 42,656. The MaltaToday sur- vey puts the gap at 'just' 15,000 now, at the start of this year's election. But the survey shows that the Opposition is not gaining ground. In fact, the survey indicates that the PN's tally is set to decrease by 7,650 votes from 2019 levels. This would mean that the party is set to get less votes than in any other MEP elections held since 2004. The main reason why the gap has narrowed is that Labour is shedding even more votes than the PN; a drop of 34,885 votes in Labour's vote tally. But few of these 'deserters' are going in the PN's direction, and most are 'parked' in no man's land. The most drastic change from 2019 is a decline in the number of valid votes cast which is set to drop by 38,329. Nearly 4 in 10 (37.5%) are say- ing that they will not vote for any party in next June's MEP election compared to 31% who either did not vote or invali- dated their vote in 2019. No such thing as a non-voter party Superficially some pundits are celebrating the emer- gence of an abstentionist par- ty claiming that this is now an electoral block in its own right. But everyone knows that non-voters, especially in MEP elections are far from a ho- mogenous group making the same point. They include a motley crew composed of vot- ers who have little in common. These probably include apo- litical and complacent people, Eurosceptics not keen on vot- ing for MEPs, voters with an axe to grind with their party, voters who don't feel repre- sented by any party and people who want to send a variety of messages, some of which end up being colourfully depicted on invalid votes. The only inference from the survey is that non-voters tend to be younger and more edu- cated than the average voter. And while in past electoral appointments abstention pe- nalised the PN particularly in the North Harbour region, this time round it is penalis- ing Labour particularly in the south east. The good news for Labour is that it is not losing a sub- stantial percentage of votes to the PN. While abstention does benefit the Opposition by default, these voters remain parked in the middle and can be recovered. For while the survey puts La- bour at 48%, the prospect of an absolute majority remains a realistic proposition simply because it has more room to grow in the next weeks than the PN. Labour's path to an absolute majority Labour's path to an absolute majority consists in convinc- ing some of the voters who trust Robert Abela more than Bernard Grech but who are presently intent on abstaining to vote for it. When non-voters are includ- ed in the survey result, one finds that Abela is significant- ly more popular than his own party. While only 30% of the entire electorate will be vot- ing for the PL, Abela is trusted by 41%. This means that Ab- ela is 11 points more popular than his own party. On the other hand, support for the PN (26%) is nine points high- er than Grech's trust rating (17%). This suggests that while a substantial number of voters are choosing the PN despite their lack of trust in Grech, a substantial number of voters trust Abela but are not intent on voting for anyone. It is also plausible that more people make up their minds to vote as the campaign kicks in. In a scenario where turnout increases back to 2019 levels (72.7%) and Labour retains a seven-point advantage, the gap could very well increase from the 15,000 votes foreseen in the survey to nearly 18,000 votes. As things stand now, 34% of Labour voters in the 2022 elections are intent on not voting compared to 23% of PN voters. This means Labour has a bigger pool from which to fish for potential voters in the next months. One would expect Labour to target these voters directly in the next weeks. Downward spiral for PN? Moreover, bad survey results can have a demoralising im- pact on the Opposition. The PN already starts the race with an unpopular lame duck as leader who is distrusted by a majority of its 2022 voters. Moreover, the main reason why the party has managed to reduce the gap with Labour is that after shedding so many voters in recent elections, it is now losing fewer votes to ab- stention than Labour. Yet the party still loses a considerable 23% of its voters to abstention, another 5% to third parties, and 2% to La- bour. One major risk facing the PN is that as demoralisation sets in, more of its voters would be tempted to either stay home or blow a raspberry by vot- ing for a third party. This also militates in favour of an even stronger Labour majority. Labour is defying the odds Across the world, midterm elections are the perfect occa- sion for electorates to punish governments without having to think whether the Opposi- tion is really a better option. Since the government of the MaltaToday's first survey on voting intentions for MEP elections due in June suggests that Labour can win by a comfortable majority of over 15,000 votes despite shedding a third of its voters in 2022. JAMES DEBONO asks how is this possible.