Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1517531
13 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 17 MARCH 2024 ANALYSIS dent Labour's dominance in local elections? Mellieha Population: 12,738 2019 votes: PL 48.5% (2,843), PN 47.2% (2,766), AD 4.4% (258) 2019 councillors: PL 5, PN 4 The PL won the election by a very slim relative majority in 2019. It only just managed to scrape ahead with 77 votes more than the PN. In 2013, the PL had obtained an absolute majority of 52.3% and 279 votes more than the PN. The very narrow margin of defeat five years ago gives the PN hope that it can overturn the result in June. However, we have to go back 25 years to find the first instance when the PN managed to obtain more votes than Labour. Indeed, in 1999, the PN won by a relative majority in an election that saw almost 300 votes go to two independent candidates. The 2008 election created a quirk since although the PL obtained an absolute majority of votes, the PN obtained a majority of councillors and thus administered the locality for five years. The question is will Mellieha swing back to the PN or will the PL manage to recover the ground lost five years ago and secure a stronger majority? San Gwann Population: 14,244 2019 votes: PL 50.6% (3,489), PN 49.4% (3,402) 2019 councillors: PL 5, PN 4 San Gwann has experienced several swings between the two major parties over the years with the PL regaining the upper hand by a mere 87 votes in 2019 to install its mayor. The result vindicated the election outcome six years earlier when despite winning a majority of votes, the PL elected a minority of seats thus failing to push the PN off the perch. Like Siggiewi, the San Gwann council election is expected to be a major battleground in June. Although losing one of its popular councillors, David Dalli, who died last year, the PN will try to wrest back control of the San Gwann council. However, the PN's mission is complicated by the popularity of incumbent mayor Trevor Fenech, something the PL will undoubtedly capitalise on. But the PL will also try to milk the national government's project to sink San Gwann's main road underground and create a public open space above it. In these circumstances, the PL is likely to remain the majority party. Birkirkara Population: 25,807 2019 votes: PL 52.2% (6,911), PN 43.7% (5,777), AD 2.8% (374), Others 1.3% (168) 2019 councillors: PL 7, PN 6 The PN trailed the PL by 1,134 votes in 2019. However, that election also saw 542 votes that collectively went to Alternattiva Demokratika and the now defunct political parties, Partit Demokratiku and Moviment Patrijotti Maltin. The PN will try to capitalise on this third-party vote to increase its tally but a former Labour councillor who will be running as an independent this time around could complicate matters for everyone. Additionally, it is not yet known whether ADPD will have a candidate in the running. In the past, Birkirkara did elect ADPD councillors. The PN lost dominance in Birkirkara in 2013 when the PL obtained a barebones absolute majority to end up with a mere 127 votes ahead of its rival. But the dye had been cast in 2009 when the Nationalists only managed a relative majority, ending 209 votes ahead of the PL. The PL will want to retain Malta's second largest locality after the progressive advances it has been making since 2009 but we could expect the PN to put up a fight and try to win back Birkirkara. Valletta Population: 5,157 2019 votes: PL 53% (1,884), PN 45.9% (1,632), Other parties 1% (37) 2019 councillors: PL 4, PN 3 Valletta was always the dominant territory of the PN until five years ago when the PL managed to obtain an absolute majority that translated into a 252-vote advantage. The PL's victory in 2019 may not have come as a complete surprise since the PN's share of the vote in the capital had been declining steadily since 2002. The PN will want to regain its former glory but the road is an uphill battle, more so when their top scoring candidate in 2019, Christian Micallef, will not be contesting. The PL is likely to retain control; however, its efforts could be hampered by the eternal cold war between incumbent mayor Alfred Zammit and party rival Raymond Azzopardi. The two already had a nail-biting battle for the mayorship in 2019, a race that could complicate itself more in 2024 with the new candidature of Olaf McKay. Siggiewi Population: 9,318 2019 votes: PL 50.6% (2,770), PN 49.4% (2,700) 2019 councillors: PL 4, PN 3 Siggiewi has always been an evenly split locality with a slight tilt towards the PN. However, in 2019, the PL managed to secure a majority for the first time ever, obtaining a mere 70 votes more than the PN. The razor-thin advantage means the locality can tilt either way in June. The PN will want to win it back to inject a touch of blue in the large red swathe covering middle Malta but the PL is unlikely to give up without a fight. Siggiewi will undoubtedly be a major battleground for the two major parties.