Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1518324
which lowered the prices on 15 categories of basic foods. But the PL's improved perfor- mance also comes in the midst of speculation on a return of former prime minister Joseph Muscat to active politics as an MEP candidate. In a speech, de- livered at an event organised by MEP candidate Alex Agius Sal- iba, Muscat made a strong pitch towards disgruntled Labour vot- ers telling them the "question is not whether Joseph is running or not but whether you will go out to vote". The survey also shows the PN making smaller inroads among supporters who were intent on not voting, with the party now retaining 82.6% of its 2022 voters up from 70.9% last month. Both parties are now losing around 14% of their 2022 support base to abstention. The percentage of respond- ents, who expressed an intent on not voting has dropped by 14.1 points, to 23.4% from 37.5% last month. This is a clear indication of greater interest in next June's election as the respective party campaigns are slowly taking off. Surprisingly, after a series of surveys pointing at record breaking abstention rates, the 76.6% turnout predicted in this survey is 6.6 points higher than the percentage of valid votes cast in the 2019 MEP election. The survey shows a very small swing of 2022 voters in favour of the PN. While the PN loses 1.4% of its voters to the PL, the PL is losing 2.3% of its voters to the PN. But this shift is partly offset by larger losses of the PN towards third parties. While Labour now loses 1.8% of its voters to third parties, the PN is losing 2.5% of its 2022 support base to third parties Labour recovers support in south east A breakdown by region shows a considerable decline in non-voters in the South-eastern region which includes Marsas- kala, Żejtun, Marsaxlokk and other Labour leaning localities. In this region, the percentage of non-voters has dropped by 17.1 points. The decline in non-vot- ers, coupled by a three-point drop in support for third parties is reflected in a 21.6-point in- crease in support for Labour in this pivotal region. In the South Harbour region, which includes deep red Cotton- era, the percentage of non-vot- ers has also decreased by 15.5 points while support for the PL has increased by 8.8 points. The survey also confirms in- roads by the Labour Party in the PN leaning Northern region, which includes Naxxar, Mellieha and St Paul's Bay. In this region, the PL has in- creased its lead from 1.9 points last month to 5.6 points now. Increased support for Labour in this region also comes in the wake of a 10.9-point drop in non-voters. But the PN's low score in this region could also reflect a rel- atively high abstention rate of 27.2%, which is the highest in the Maltese islands. Labour also registers major in- roads in Gozo where the party now leads the PN by a staggering 23.8 points. Worryingly for the PN, the PL manages to clinch an absolute majority in Gozo (50.5%) even when non-voters are included in the score. The only region where the PN commands a substantial lead is the North Harbour district, the highly-urbanised belt that in- cludes Sliema, St Julians, Msida, Qormi and Birkirkara. In this region, the PN is lead- ing Labour by 8.8 points. The region also registers the highest level of support for third parties (5.7%). The PN also commands a wa- fer thin 0.7-point majority in the Western region, which includes Żebbuġ and Attard. This result reverses a small one-point lead for Labour in February. PL strongest among those earning less than €2,000 The Labour Party registers its best results among those earn- ing less than €1,000 a month (46.9%) and among those earn- ing between €1,001 and €2,000 (40.2%). In contrast, the PN registers its strongest support among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000, where it leads Labour by 7.8 points. Support for third par- ties is also highest in this catego- ry (11.9 points). But the PL also beats the PN by 5.3 points among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000. But this category also includes the highest percentage of non-vot- ers (49.8%). PN losing in all age groups The survey shows Labour com- manding a substantial lead in all age brackets. The PL's lead ranges from 12.3 points among 36 to 50-year olds to 4.9 points among over 65 year olds. The survey shows a decline in the abstention rate in all age groups particularly among 16 to 35 year olds the percentage of non-voters dropped by 20.9 points from 54.5% to 33.6%. A breakdown by education shows the PL making major in- roads among the post-secondary educated where the PN enjoyed a 2.3-point lead last month. The PL now enjoys a 9.3-point lead in this cohort. Labour's gains in this category correspond to a 12.8-point drop in the percent- age of non-voters. But the PN has increased its lead among the tertiary educat- ed. In this category, the PN now leads by 13.7 points, up from 5.7 points last month. This suggests that in this case a 16.3-point drop in non-voters has largely benefitted the PN. Third parties also score their best result in this category (8%). Methodology: The survey was carried out was carried between 7 March 2024 and 21 March 2024 for which 657 peo- ple opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opt- ed to complete the survey chose not to answer a few of the questions for which they are treated as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to re- place the missing values. The margin of error for this result is 3.82% for a con- fidence interval of 95%. 13 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 31 MARCH 2024 SURVEY Party ahead by 29,000 votes Voting intentions by monthly income Voting intentions by region