Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1518324
15 SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 31 MARCH 2024 ONLY 35.5% of voters want former prime minister Joseph Muscat to stand as an MEP candidate on a Labour ticket. But among current Labour voters the percentage who want Muscat to stand for elec- tion increases to a remarkable 69.5%. This represents a rare chasm between the views of the gen- eral electorate which are luke- warm on Muscat's candidature and those of Labour voters who seem thrilled by the prospect. Over the past weeks Muscat has wetted the appetite of La- bour supporters after address- ing a mass rally organised by Labour lead candidate Alex Agius Saliba in which he kept them guessing on whether he will be contesting or not. Muscat's candidature is openly backed by Labour propagan- dist Emanuel Cushcieri but has created ripples in the party's administration amidst concern that the former PM could over shadow the current leader. The MaltaToday survey fur- ther amplifies the quandary facing the Labour administra- tion. For while speculation on Muscat's candidature has al- ready helped the party by galva- nising the Labour vote, it could also turn off middle of the road voters and even a significant chunk of Labour voters. The survey shows that apart from a relative majority of 44.4% that do not want Muscat to contest, it also shows that 11.7% of current Labour voters are against. The percentage rises to 14.4% among respondents who had voted for Labour in 2022 in what could be an indication that a segment of disgruntled Labourites do not see Muscat in a positive light. Moreover 18.9% of current voters and 21% of Labour vot- ers in 2022 are undecided, which suggests these are either indifferent or unenthusiastic on Muscat's candidature. Yet the matter gets even more complicated when analysing the views of non-voters. Among this electorally strate- gic category which could make the difference between a strat- ospheric Labour victory and a narrowed gap between the two parties, 39.7% are against Mus- cat standing while a sizeable 23.7% agree. This suggests that although Muscat's candidature may fur- ther alienate a segment of dis- gruntled voters, a smaller but significant segment may be more likely to vote Labour if he contests. Moreover, the voting inten- tions survey which shows La- bour increasing its majority amidst a decline in non-voters, may also be seen an indication that speculation on a Muscat candidature has already helped in galvanising disgruntled La- bourites. But Labour has to be extra careful not to disorient a mi- nority of loyal voters who do not want their party tainted by the former leader's scandal rid- den legacy. Moreover, a Muscat candi- dature could also alienate im- portant demographics like ter- tiary educated voters amongst which opposition to a Muscat candidature rises to 63.2% and where only 16.7% favour his candidacy. Moreover, opposition to a Muscat candidature is also higher among younger de- mographics. Among 16- to 35-year-olds, only 30.7% would like Muscat to stand as a candi- date while 45.6% are opposed. An absolute majority in the Northern (51%) and Western (55.6%) regions, where Labour has made considerable inroads in the survey, is opposed to Muscat contesting. But Muscat's candidature enjoys higher support in the Labour heartlands, particular- ly in the South Harbour where 44.8% want him to stand. Sur- prisingly, support for a Muscat candidature is even stronger in Gozo, an electorally strategic district, where 45.5% want the former PM to contest. Should Joseph Muscat contest EP election? Majority say no, Labour voters overwhelmingly say yes Grech by 24 points egory. This is an indication that a substantial number of tertiary voters who distrust both leaders are still likely to vote PN. Abela leads Grech by 30 points among 36- to 50-year-olds The gap between Abela and Grech is widest among those aged between 36 and 50, which is also the cohort that includes the highest percentage of re- spondents who trust neither leader. This suggests that disgruntle- ment among a category which includes people at the peak of their career and people who are more likely to have dependent children, is not resulting in any gains for the Opposition or its leader. In fact, in this cohort Abe- la leads Grech by a staggering 31.5 points. Abela also leads Grech by 27.5 points among those aged between 51 and 65 and by 25.9 points among those aged between 16 and 35. How- ever, Abela's lead drops to 15.6 points among those aged over 65 years of age. Abela leading in all Maltese regions The survey also shows Abela leading Grech in all six regions. In a clear indication that Abela's strategy of pandering to the party's grass roots has partly paid off, his trust rating in the South Harbour region, which includes Labour's Cot- tonera strongholds, has in- creased from 48% in Decem- ber to 54% in February and to 55% now. Abela is also making substan- tial inroads in the Labour lean- ing South Eastern region which includes localities like Marsas- kala, Żurrieq and Birżebbuġa. In this region where the per- centage who trust neither lead- er has dropped from 44% last month to 29% now, Abela is now trusted by 51.2%, up from 39%. But the Prime Minister also makes inroads in the tradition- ally PN leaning Northern re- gion where he leads Grech by a staggering 32.7 points. Significantly Abela gets his best trust rating in Gozo where he scores 55.7%, up from 43.2% last month. Grech gets his best result in the North Harbour region where he is trusted by 28% of respondents. Nonethe- less, even here Abela still leads Grech by 5.5 points. Trust Barometer by monthly income Trust Barometer by region