Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1519882
4 NEWS 4 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 1 MAY 2024 JOSEPH Muscat will not be on the ballot sheet, but hits over-bearing and polarising presence is likely to dominate midterm elections thanks to the conclusions of the hospitals' in- quiry. The mere fact that the mag- istrate submitted her findings on 25 April, the day when the Electoral Commission started receiving nominations for MEP elections, has already raised heckles. In a democracy which cherish- es the separation of powers be- tween the executive, the legisla- tive and the judicial powers, it is not the business of politicians to dictate the timings of a magiste- rial inquiry. But the judiciary does not exist in a political vacuum and con- cluding an inquiry after more than four years on the eve of mid-term elections, was bound to conjure a political storm irre- spective of the intentions of the magistrate in question. And while anti-corruption cru- saders who in the public psyche are associated with a faction of the Nationalist Party, are re- joicing at the fallout, the timing gives Abela an opportunity to use the Muscat trump card in a bid to rally Labour's grass roots and raise the turnout. Truth be said, the political fall- out may well have been more politically damaging for Abela, had the inquiry been conclud- ed a few weeks ago or just after MEP elections. If that was the case the focus would have been on the content of the inquiry and the willing- ness of the State to follow on its recommendations. Instead, the focus will now be on the timing of the inquiry. That could change if the AG pro- ceeds to publish the conclusions of the inquiry as recommended by both Repubblika and Robert Abela himself. But even if this was the case, a sober reading of the conclusions will be difficult against the backdrop of the elec- toral drum rolls. Will Muscat's troubles boost Labour's turnout? And as a master in the art of political survival, Robert Abe- la knows that ditching Muscat right in the middle of a cam- paign would be political suicide, an act which would demoralise the party's grass roots probably resulting in record abstention rate which would have robbed him of his super majority. For Abela had four full years to ditch Muscat and reduce his in- fluence on his party's grass roots. After missing that chance fol- lowing the revocation of the hos- pital contract by the law courts in February 2023, his only po- litical choice now is to embrace Muscat from a distance, not out of love for the former party lead- er but out of sheer political ne- cessity. But this comes with a silver lin- ing for Abela. He can aggressive- ly lash against the magistrate's 'timing' , feeding a convenient and effective narrative, pitting the party against the 'establish- ment'. In this way he can coun- ter the creeping perception that Labour with its incestuous links with big business constitutes the new establishment. Moreover, it gives Abela the opportunity to project his par- ty as the perennial underdog, whose hold on power remains tenuous in the face of a conspir- acy of sinister forces. Like Mus- cat in 2017 Abela could turn this into a call for political stability in the face of disruptive forces. And he can do this without even entering the merits of the case and without absolving his predecessor from any wrong- doing. For Abela and his closest collaborators know that they cannot vouch for Muscat's in- nocence in what remains the Achilles heel of the former lead- er's legacy; a hospital sale from which the country gained noth- ing. In so doing without even facing the risk of being overshadowed by Muscat had he stood as an MEP candidate, Abela can use the Muscat ace card in his bid to galvanise the turnout among core Labour voters while bank- ing on doubts on the timing of the inquiry among middle of the road voters. Moreover, by lashing out against the 'establishment' which is hounding Muscat, Ab- ela is also making up for the disappointment felt by Labour voters on his absence from the ballot sheet. And the current political crisis has also given the party a polar- ising battle cry changing a bor- ing lacklustre election character- ised by a poor line up of Labour candidates, into a call to arms against what Abela craftily pre- sents as "political terrorism". Moreover, once again as he previously did with regards to the inquiry on Jean Paul Sofia's death, Abela can bank on the fact that the magistrate cannot reply to his attacks. The risk of this strategy is obvi- ous. It obfuscates the separation of powers and feeds a danger- ous populism which thrives on public mistrust of the judiciary. In short, Abela risks turning the people against the law courts in a throw-back to the 1980s. By going down this path, Abe- la risks backlash among middle of the road voters. But he may well bank on their abstention in forthcoming elections. In the circumstances, Abela's calculation may well be that the scale of Labour's victory depends on the turnout among his voters. And with surveys confirming Muscat's popularity among La- bour voters, one can see a logic behind Abela's political chess move. Grech's Catch 22 Sure, enough the risk of this strategy is that it also provides a rallying cry for the PN, possibly clawing back support from de- moralised PN voters now intent on not voting or tempted to vote for a third parties or independ- ents like Arnold Cassola. But this makes it impossible for the party to focus on a positive campaign centring around Rob- erta Metsola's larger than life stature. Muscat: From Abela's millstone to Joseph Muscat will not be on the ballot sheet but the conclusion of a magisterial inquiry on the privatisation of public hospitals weighs heavily on the outcome of midterm elections. JAMES DEBONO explores the political fall- out of an institutional crisis.