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4 NEWS 4 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 8 MAY 2024 The lion that can't roar How will the rising political temperature impact on the turnout and the behaviour of non-voters? JAMES DEBONO ref lects on Robert Abela's tight rope walk between roaring loudly to mobilise hard core supporters and the risk of waking up dormant voters. LIKE a lion whose roar can re- unite his pride but risks scaring away the prey, Robert Abela is walking a tight rope. Faced with the imminent ar- raignment of his predecessor in relation to the Vitals hospitals inquiry, Abela is hitting out at the magistrate in a bid to mo- bilise disgruntled hard-core supporters. But at the same time, his roar risks awakening dormant categories of voters whose abstention favours his party. Understanding what ticks dif- ferent categories of non-voters is therefore of paramount im- portance to strategists in both parties. Their main aim is to in- crease the turnout in favourable demographics while keeping it as low as possible in more hos- tile categories. Surveys suggest that there are at least three very broad catego- ries of non-voters, which could shape the outcome of mid-term elections and who may well re- spond differently to increased polarisation in the wake of the conclusion of the magisterial inquiry on the hospital scandal. Disenchanted (or apathetic) younger voters Non-voters include an anon- ymous and hard to decipher mass of disenchanted or apa- thetic voters who either resent both parties or are simply disin- terested and have switched off due to electoral fatigue. There is no way of calculating how big this category is and it would be a mistake to assume that it is homogenous in terms of values and priorities. But the indications are that voters aged under 35 years of age amongst which according to MaltaToday's last survey 44% are intent on not voting, and voters aged between 36 and 50 where abstention is now at 45%, could be fertile grounds for this broad sentiment. Other categories prone to this sentiment could be post-sec- ondary educated voters amongst which 33% will not vote and ter- tiary educated voters (31%). Significantly these categories also register the highest support for third parties, whose sup- port rises to 8% among under 35-year-olds and to 7% among the tertiary educated. It remains to be seen wheth- er third parties and independ- ents will gain further traction in what should be their natural habitat. But so far none of the inde- pendent or third-party candi- dates have gained traction in an over-crowded field. This could change with increased exposure in the campaign. But there is also the possibil- ity of apathetic voters being 'awakened' from their slumber if the Prime Minister crosses a red line. This could drive them to vote for a 'lesser evil'. Even voters who consider the PN un- prepared to govern the country may be tempted to punish La- bour and they can do so in the comfort of knowing that they won't be risking a change in the country's government. Moreover, Roberta Metsola, whose stature is enhanced by her stint as EU parliament pres- ident is in an ideal place to cap- ture this sentiment. And while some of these voters may have become immune to corruption allegations involv- ing the same protagonists first exposed in the Panama Papers, the confirmation of these 'alle- gations' in a magisterial inquiry could change their outlook. This explains why Labour has every interest in sowing doubts on the impartiality of the in- quiry by lashing out at its suspi- cious timing. This remains the strongest argument in Abela's arsenal. The demotivated Nationalist voter Another category of non-vot- ers is a minority of PN voters who still show no inclination of going back to their party. The percentage of 2022 PN voters intent on not voting dropped from 23% in February to 13.5% in March and remained stable at 14.6% in the last survey pub- lished on 5 May. These do not include PN vot- ers who had already abstained in the 2022 general election. The latest survey shows that 77% of abstainers in the 2022 election also intend to abstain in the mid terms with both PN and PL recovering 9% of these voters. This is bad news for the PN considering that the party had lost more to abstention than Labour in 2022. This abstention could simply reflect fatigue or demoralisa- tion after so many losses. But it could also reflect long standing factional divides in the party. While over the past year Grech has worked in tandem with Adrian Delia who led the legal battle to revoke the hospitals deal, there are also indications that at grass roots level these wounds have not healed com- pletely. This explains why on Monday Abela tried to deflect criticism by rhetorically asking Delia about the 'establishment' which removed him from party lead- er, provoking a sharp response from the former PN leader that Abela is the establishment. The disgruntled Labour voter But the category whose change of moods is having the greatest impact on polls is composed of former PL voters intent on ab- staining. This may include some dis- gruntled by Labour policies and Even voters who consider the PN unprepared to govern the country may be tempted to punish Labour and they can do so in the comfort of knowing that they won't be risking a change in the country's government