Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1521091
6 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 22 MAY 2024 ANALYSIS Supermajority or narrowed gap? Irrespective of the scale of Labour' victory on 8 June Robert Abela will still be in office commanding a nine-seat majority in the national parliament while Malta's six MEPs will have little sway on the balance of power in EU institutions. JAMES DEBONO tries to understand what is really at stake for Malta in Labour's mid-term test. NOBODY doubts that Labour is cruising to another comfortable victory in the June MEP election in terms of votes obtained. Bar any cataclysmic scenario, the only question left answered is by how many votes the Labour Party will win. So far, polls indi- cate that the PL enjoys an un- assailable and comfortable lead over its main rival, the National- ist Party. But the party may fall short of the super majority it has won in every electoral appointment since 2009 when the party under Joseph Muscat won its first super majority in the MEP election. The scale of Labour's victory could also have a psychological effect which could shape and condition Robert Abela's leader- ship in the next three years, but it could also determine the fu- ture of Bernard Grech's leader- ship, especially if Labour defies all odds by winning an unlikely fourth seat. Bernard Grech's future (not Abela's) is in the balance Bernard Grech has put his job on the line by committing him- self to ask for a vote of confidence in the party's general council if the PN fails to win its third seat. In many ways this was a safe bet. After all Labour had missed this target even in 2014 when it won by over 33,677 votes in a nail bit- er which saw Therese Comodini Cachia snatch the PN's third seat by chance. Five years ago, the PL won a fourth seat on the back of a super majority of 42,656. But any failure by the PN to reach this modest target may well throw the Opposition party in disarray, especially if Roberta Metsola turns down the call of the party's grass roots to come back to lead the party. Such a result may not even be the desired outcome for La- bour which could be satisfied by a strong majority which is just enough to demoralise the PN while keeping Grech in his place as a lame duck until the next gen- eral election. The fear of losing the super majority One of Labour' greatest strengths over the past decade has been its psychological mind frame not to take its super ma- jorities for granted. The party has remained constantly in electoral mode and has even been ready to backtrack at the first signs of popular dissatisfaction. Still, one cannot help noticing that since 2022 Abela's u-turns have become even more abrupt as it became increasingly difficult for him to keep traditional Labour- ites, progressive voters, switchers and Muscat loyalists in the same tent. However, if past campaigns are anything to go by, one can be misled in believing that Labour is fighting for its survival when in truth it is simply doing everything in its power to win superlatively. In this sense Labour's sense of urgency in this campaign is more dictated by a fear of seeing its su- per majority eroded than by any realistic fear of a PN revival. But this time around, Labour may be a victim of its past suc- cesses, with Abela desperately having to match results which de- fy the laws of attrition. The ques- tion is whether a reduced major- ity will condition the next three years of Labour government and how. Again, much depends on Bar any cataclysmic scenario, the only question left answered is by how many votes the Labour Party will win. So far, polls indicate that the PL enjoys an unassailable and comfortable lead over its main rival, the Nationalist Party.