Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1521306
16 SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 26 MAY 2024 JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt THE Labour Party remains solidly in pole position leading the Nationalist Party by 8.4 points, which translates in to a gap of 21,539 votes. Just two weeks before the Eu- ropean election is due, a new MaltaToday survey is predict- ing a turnout of 69.7%. The gap between the two ma- jor parties represents a mar- ginal increase from 7.7 points and 19,864 votes in the previ- ous survey held in the begin- ning of the May. The differ- ence between the two surveys is within the margin of error of both surveys. The latest poll was conducted between 13 and 21 May, dom- inated by political controversy on the arraignment of former prime minister Joseph Muscat over the hospitals scandal with Labour's MEP candidates ral- lying behind the former lead- er. The survey suggests that the increased political polarisa- tion has not resulted in any overall increase in the turnout which has remained stable, increasing by a negligible 0.3 points from the previous sur- vey. The PL has increased its sup- port by 1.4 points to reach an absolute majority of 50.8% while support for the PN has also increased by 0.7 points. Support for third parties has slipped from 8.9% to 6.8%. PN narrows gaps but makes few inroads The survey confirms pre- vious trends showing that the PN has narrowed the gap with Labour when compared to election results of the past decade that all resulted in a super majority for Labour of over 35,000 votes. Although the survey does register a small shift from the PL to the PN, most of the PL's losses are the result of a higher abstention rate among its vot- ers. While the PN loses 16.8% of its 2022 general election vot- ers to abstention, the PL loses 19.1% of its voters. The survey also suggests that at this juncture Labour is los- ing more to third parties than the PN. While only 1.3% of PN voters in 2022 opt for a third party, the percentage increases to 3.5% among PL voters. And while the PL loses 3.3% of its 2022 voters to the PN, only 1.3% of PN voters intend voting for the PL. Overall while the PN retains 80.8% of its 2022 voters, the PL is retaining 74.1%. Younger and middle aged voters punishing Labour The survey shows Labour leading in all age groups, but its advantage is substantial- ly narrowed among younger and middle aged respondents. While the PL is leading the PN by a staggering 15 points among over 65 year olds, the gap between the two parties decreases to 3.9 points among 36 to 50 year olds, to 2.1 points among under 35 year olds and to just 1.8 points among 51 to 65 year olds. Abstention is also higher among younger and middle aged voters peaking at 40.8% among 16 to 35 year olds, dropping to 36.6% among Labour leads by 8 points MaltaToday survey: VOTING | PL: 50.8%, PN: 42.4%, Other: 6.8%; Turnout: 69.7% Voting intentions: 2022 voters Voting intentions by region The PL has increased its support by 1.4 points to reach an absolute majority of 50.8% while support for the PN has also increased by 0.7 points. Support for third parties has slipped from 8.9% to 6.8%.