Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1521709
13 ANALYSIS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 2 JUNE 2024 January 7: Robert Abela addresses supporters describing Joseph Muscat as his 'dear friend' January 25: On Facebook Labour stalwart Manuel Cuschieri asks his followers whether they agreed that Muscat should return to the Labour fore as an MEP. January 26: Doorstepped by MaltaToday Joseph Muscat does not exclude running for MEP: 'I cannot ignore the people' January 26: Speaking outside Labour HQ before an event in which Muscat was present Abela expresses concern on the "exaggerated" delays in the inquiry's conclusion questioning whether it was designed to cause the Labour Party maximum damage prior to the European Parliament elections adding that "Joseph Muscat was never out of the Labour Party. I believe he has more to give to Labour. God forbid I base my decisions on this inquiry.". January 27: Interviewed by Andrew Azzopardi on RTK 103 Robert Abela does not exclude Muscat's candidature: "But if his answer is yes, why should I say no to him?" February 1: Muscat indicates "It's not an easy decision, there are a lot of factors which I have to reflect on," Muscat says in a soft interview with Karl Bonaci on Fliving. February 27: During a coffee morning Michelle Muscat says decision on whether her husband Joseph Muscat will contest the European Parliament election is "up to the Labour Party". March 9: Muscat addresses supporters at a rally by MEP Alex Agius Saliba in Pjazza Tritoni downplays the prospect of an MEP candidature, telling supporters: "The question is not whether Joseph is running or not…The question is whether you will go out to vote." March 13: Cuschieri claims that some entrepreneurs were pressuring Labour to keep Muscat off the June ballot for the European Parliament elections. April 25: Vitals inquiry concluded and sent to the Attorney General's office. April 26: In a Facebook post, the PL shared a photo of the nine candidates taking a selfie at the Naxxar counting hall where they went to submit their nominations together. Muscat is not one of them. April 28: Abela warns the judiciary not to engage in "political terrorism" while accusing "the Nationalist establishment" of trying to impede the government's progress. April 30: "I have no doubt I will be charged" Muscat tells journalists while lashing at 'institutions working against Labourites' and warning of another Egrant. April 30: Using the inquiry to get out the vote, Abela said that the electorate has to make a decision and decide whether it will let "the establishment steal the sovereignty of the leadership of the country" while lashing at "a group of people who "work in the background, that do not forget nor forgive and that believe that they have a divine right to rule" May 2: Abela describes the timing of the inquiry's conclusion as 'suspicious' adding that the 'establishment' is trying to destabilise Malta. May 6: Muscat takes to Facebook to warn "Anyone who has been tainted by this injustice, or washed their hands of this injustice" that they "will be judged harshly by the public immediately, by long-term justice, and by history forever." May 9: Muscat is interviewed on F Living, promising that when "this charade starts coming apart" he will hold those personally responsible for the €11 million spent on the magisterial inquiry. May 15: Muscat makes comeback on party media as he is interviewed on One radio by Emanuel Cuschieri Joseph Muscat insisting that the case against him is based on hearsay while urging his audience to vote Labour on June 8. May 21-May 25: Muscat embarks on roadshow addressing public events organised by Labour MEP candidates Clint Azzopardi, Alex Agius Saliba, Daniel Attard and Sarah Vella Gafa. May 20: Friends of Joseph Muscat call for a 'solidarity meeting' outside the law courts on the day of his arraignment set for following week. May 21: Abela alleged that the Nationalist Party is setting a "trap" for Labour supporters attending the solidarity meeting while adding that "just like [Muscat] never fell for the traps the PN tried on him, he will not allow anyone to fall for this one". May 26: MaltaToday publishes magisterial inquiry in full. May 27: Asked about conclusions of inquiry Robert Abela replies "let us now allow the institutions to do their jobs. Whether someone is guilty or innocent, is definitely not for me to comment on." May 28: Muscat is arraigned in court as crowd of loyalists gather to express their support. Timeline short, the magician had managed to square the circle. In comparison Abela came to power in less rosy times, where nostalgia for the 'best of times' is finding fertile ground. A winning strategy until… Irrespective of who between the two lead- ers is really calling the shots, the actual timing of the inquiry at the very start of the campaign suggests that the symbiotic re- lationship between Muscat and Abela was an effective one in terms of party strategy to ensure full mobilisation of core voters. This even led to a Labour bounce in the polls as the party retained more of its 2022 voters. However, Abela also had to be careful not to awaken dormant categories of moderate voters presently intent on not voting who could actually vote for a 'lesser evil' if Abela crosses a red line. These include voters who consider the PN unprepared to govern the country but may be tempted to punish La- bour in the comfort that they won't be risk- ing a change in the country's government. This explains why Abela chose to focus on the timing and not the content of the in- quiry, even if he might have crossed a red line by comparing it to "political terrorism". While Abela used harsh words to attack the timing of the inquiry whose conclusions were presented on the day the Electoral Commission started accepting nomina- tions, he did not embark on an uncondi- tional defence of his predecessor, as he did with regards to his former deputy PM Chris Fearne, another casualty of the inquiry, whom Abela described as a "person of in- tegrity". But all this changed when the inquiry was published by MaltaToday days before Jo- seph Muscat was arraigned in court. This inevitably led to the public's attention turn- ing from the timing of the inquiry to its actual content, which turns out to be very damning for Muscat and even more so for his close allies Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri, who were kept in key positions despite being exposed as owners of secret companies in Panama in 2016. Moreover, while the rally of Muscat sup- porters in front of the law courts was largely peaceful, the optics were far from that pol- ished corporate brand that Muscat had nur- tured in 2013 to lure middle-of-the-road voters (it is worth remembering that back in 2012 Anglu Farrugia was unceremoniously dumped from deputy leader for criticising a member of the judiciary). While it remains likely that Labour will win big on 8 June, Muscat will remain a millstone around Abela's neck, even more so if Muscat takes credit for the victory while facing charges in court. Now facing either conviction or abso- lution, both could have explosive conse- quences for party and country. Abela may need to prepare for both eventualities, hop- ing this will not detract him further from the actual business of running the country. After 8 June, Muscat will no longer have the leverage he currently has on the eve of an election and freed from electoral pres- sures Abela may revert back to "let the in- stitutions work" mantra. YOUR RIGHT TO KNOW WWW.MALTATODAY.COM.MT SUNDAY 26 MAY 2024 • ISSUE 1281 • PUBLISHED EVERY WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY Art installation at Love Monument encourages people to test for HIV PAGE 15 Stivala wants green light for illegal rooftop decking at Gzira lido PAGE 14 Free test kits Enjoy it! maltatoday Why we are publishing the Vitals Inquiry Report EDITORIAL MT2 GRAND THEFT MALTA PN and the EU €1.95 PN PN MEP candidate MEP candidate David Agius on David Agius on Bernard Grech, voters' Bernard Grech, voters' concerns and the concerns and the election campaign election campaign INTERVIEWMT2 An inquiry that shows how Labour government functionaries Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi looted taxpayer money with the apparent complicity of their boss Joseph Muscat and the help of many others who acted as fronts MaltaToday Survey: PL widens lead SEE SURVEY PAGES 16 - 19 SEE STORIES PAGES 2 - 13 VOTING INTENTIONS | PL: 50.8%, PN: 42.4.%, Other: 6.8%; Turnout: 69.7% TRUST RATING | Robert Abela: 38%, Bernard Grech: 23.3%, None: 38.7% MaltaToday publishes Vitals Inquiry online