Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1521974
2 SURVEY maltatoday | THURSDAY • 6 JUNE 2024 2 JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Labour lead widens as WITH the election campaign drawing to a close the Labour Party has widened the gap over the Nationalist Party to 24,262 votes. The increased gap is the re- sult of a decrease in support for the PN, which sheds one percentage point over the last survey. Support for the PL has remained stable at 50.7% with the PN registering 41.4%. Support for third parties and independent candidates has increased by one point and is now at 7.9%. The latest poll was conduct- ed over two weeks between 22 May and 4 June. The survey coincided with the publication of the magisterial inquiry on the hospitals scandal by Malt- aToday. The survey suggests that in- creased political polarisation has not resulted in any overall increase in the turnout which has remained stable at 69.9%, increasing by a negligible 0.2 points from the previous sur- vey. PN narrows gap compared to election results The survey confirms previous trends showing that the PN has narrowed the gap with Labour when compared to election re- sults of the past decade that all resulted in a super majority for Labour of over 35,000 votes. But the survey does not show any significant shift from the PL to the PN and most of the PL's losses are the result of a higher abstention rate among its voters. The survey shows the PL los- ing 2.8% of its 2022 general election voters to the PN, and the PN losing 1.3% of its 2022 voters to the PL. On the other hand, while the PN loses 15.5% of its 2022 gen- eral election voters to absten- tion, the PL loses 18.8% of its voters. The survey also suggests that at this juncture the PN is los- ing more to third parties than the PL. While only 2.6% of PL voters in 2022 opt for a third party, the percentage increases to 4.7% among PN voters. Overall, while the PN retains 78.5% of its 2022 voters, the PL is retaining 75.9%. 12% of under 35 year olds set to vote for a third party The survey shows a genera- tional divide between young- er and older voters with the former being more inclined to vote for a third party or to abstain. Among 16 to 35 year olds the two major parties only com- mand the support of 43.9% in contrast to 87.1% among over 65 year olds. Support for third parties falls from 11.8% among under 35 year olds to just 0.6% among over 65 year olds. Abstention also falls from a remarkable 44.3% among un- der 35 year olds to just 12.3% among over 65 year olds. And while Labour leads the PN in all age groups, the gap is substantially greater among over 65 year olds where La- bour leads by 12.1 points. The gap is substantially narrowed among 51 to 65 year olds where Labour leads by just 0.5 points and among 36 to 50 year olds where it leads by 4 points. But among under 35 year olds Labour's lead increases again to 8.8 points. The survey also shows that support for third parties de- creases with age, from 11.8% among under 35 year olds to 7.8% among 36 to 50 year olds to just 1.1% among 51 to 65 year olds and 0.6% among over 65 year olds. Low income earners and secondary educated rally behind Labour The survey also shows Labour leading the PN in all income brackets. But the gap drops to just 0.3 points among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000. In contrast, Labour is leading by 13.1 points among those earning less than €1,000 and by 6.5 points among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000. Abstention and support for third parties is highest among those earning more than €3,000. In this category where Labour leads the PN by 6.9 Voting intentions: 2022 voters Voting intentions by age