Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1521974
4 SURVEY 4 JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt maltatoday | THURSDAY • 6 JUNE 2024 Metsola, Agius Saliba storm ahead Independent candidate Arnold Cassola ranks fifth in first preference vote in close race with Daniel Attard (PL), Peter Agius (PN) and Steve Ellul (PL) ROBERTA Metsola remains in pole position with 41.3% of voters who have made up their mind saying they will give her their first preference. Two days before Malta heads to the polls to elect six MEPs, Labour's front runner Alex Agius Saliba secures 29.9% of those who have decided who to give their number 1 vote. The other four front runners in the survey are PL candidate Daniel Attard (4.2%), PN can- didate Peter Agius (3.9%), in- dependent candidate Arnold Cassola (3.9%), and Labour candidate Steve Ellul (3.6%). This ranking is an indica- tion of strength at first count and could change in the actu- al election when second and subsequent preferences will determine which candidates are ultimately elected. Moreover, candidates like David Casa, who is poised to win the greater share of Met- sola's second preferences, could gain a foothold as the counting progresses. A significant number of vot- ers (52.4%) replied that they are still undecided on which candidate to vote for. Signif- icantly, the survey also shows that current Labour voters are more undecided than PN vot- ers. While 44.3% of PN voters are undecided, the percentage increases to 59.3% among PL voters. This means that Agius Sali- ba has more room to grow in the next days, possibly edging closer to Metsola on polling day as more Labour voters make up their mind. Metsola and Agius Saliba are also the only two candi- dates mentioned in the survey whose score is substantially greater than the survey's mar- gin of error. This means that the results of other candidates are only indicative. The survey can only give an indication on the chances other candidates have of get- ting elected and much will de- pend on the inheritance from the two leading candidates as well as from candidates who are eliminated in the long and complicated process of vote transfers. MaltaToday also asked re- spondents voting for Metsola and Agius Saliba to state for which candidate they intend giving their second preference. Casa inheriting most votes from Metsola An analysis of the result shows that David Casa, who was only mentioned by 2.1% of respondents as their first choice, is poised to inherit 43% of Metsola's vote while Peter Agius who was mentioned by 3.9%% of respondents as their first choice, is poised to inher- it 11.9% of Metsola's vote. For- mer PN deputy leader David Agius is also poised to inherit 7.2% of Metsola's vote. This makes David Casa and Peter Agius clear favourites to accompany Metsola in Brus- sels if the party wins three seats. Casa has an advantage over Agius if the party only elects two seats. The survey suggests that the elections will also see a degree of cross party voting among Metsola voters, 4.9% of which will give their second prefer- ence to Arnold Cassola. Daniel Attard inheriting most votes from Agius Saliba The survey also suggests that Daniel Attard is emerging as the second strongest Labour candidate with 4.2% of first preferences and a substantial 26.5% of second preferences inherited from Agius Saliba. But the survey indicates that there will be a very tight race for Labour's third and poten- tial fourth seat. While Steve Ellul (3.6%) and Thomas Ba-