Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1521974
5 maltatoday | THURSDAY • 6 JUNE 2024 SURVEY KURT SANSONE ksansone@mediatoday.com.mt THE survey results suggest we could be in for an inter- esting battle for the sixth seat after the dust settles on the overall result of Sat- urday's election. A breakdown of the sur- vey numbers shows that the Labour Party is posed to secure 131,092 votes, the Nationalist Party 106,830 votes and all oth- er candidates together are expected to muster 20,400 votes. With an estimated turn- out of 69.9%, the survey suggests that the quota for the European Parliament election will be 36,904 votes. This means that the PL has a quota share of 3.55, the PN a quota share of 2.89 and all other candi- dates a collective quota share of 0.55. These figures translate into three solid seats for the PL and two solid seats for the PN, leaving the sixth seat in play. As things stand, the PN is best placed to win that last seat, having a fraction of 0.89 when compared to the PL's 0.55 and the other candidates at 0.55. However, these quo- ta shares are based on the first count result and where that last seat goes will depend on how votes are inherited in subse- quent rounds when candi- dates are either elected or eliminated. This means that if the PN sheds votes to independ- ent candidates or is sad- dled with non-transferable votes (this could happen, for example, if someone gives their number one vote to a candidate and stops there), it could see its fraction being chipped away at every count. The MaltaToday survey groups all third party can- didates and independents together, so it is difficult to say how that 0.55 quo- ta share will be split up between them. However, when respondents were asked who their first- choice candidate is, Ar- nold Cassola is the only in- dependent to make it into the top six category at first count. This ranking suggests Cassola is very likely to be the independent candidate to inherit most votes in subsequent counts. However, we do advise caution on these figures because a majority of peo- ple were uncertain who their preferred candidate is. Although the PN starts as favourite to clinch its third seat, it is not a des- tiny etched in stone. The race for that last seat could go to the wire and much will depend on the appe- tite of voters to engage in cross-party voting. PN could clinch third seat by a whisker ahead as Cassola makes top six jada (3.2%) have an advantage over Clint Azzopardi Flores (1.4%) in the first preference vote, the latter could inherit a slightly higher share of second preferences from Agius Saliba (14.7%) compared to 13.3% for Thomas Bajada and 12.6% for Steve Ellul. This suggests that Labour's third and potential fourth seat are up for grabs. Cassola leads third party vote With nearly 4% of decid- ed voters Arnold Cassola is the clear front runner among independent and small par- ty candidates followed by far rightist Norman Lowell (1.9%), former Gzira mayor Conrad Borg Manche (1.3%) and AD- PD leader Sandra Gauci (0.6%). But a substantial 51.9% of third party and independent voters are still undecided on which candidate they will be voting for on election day. This means that third party and independent candidates, could get a significantly higher number of votes than that reg- istered in the survey.