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3 maltatoday | MONDAY • 10 JUNE 2024 MEP ELECTION 2024 How Labour lost its supermajority: five main take-aways Nobody doubted that Labour was headed for victory, but any margin of victory below 20,000 is a bad result for Robert Abela's party. JAMES DEBONO on the reasons why Labour lost its supermajority 1. Instead of boosting Labour's turn-out, Joseph Muscat may have turned off middle-of-the- road voters and energised the PN-Metsola vote Faced by the damning Vitals PPP inquiry, Labour cynically played the Muscat card to en- ergise its base. Joseph Muscat was invited on the party media and was a regu- lar guest on various roadshows for Labour's main candidates. Labour's optics were damaged by a show of force from Mus- cat supporters outside the law courts the day of his arraign- ment. The European election re- sult suggests that the opposite happened. Not only has it not galvanised the Labour vote but it may have backfired among floaters who had migrated to Labour in 2013. Moreover, Muscat's lega- cy may have rendered Labour toxic among young and ter- tiary-educated voters, possibly pushing away some who were originally intent on not voting, to instead vote Metsola to pun- ish Labour. Crucially following the publication of the Vitals inquiry by MaltaToday, peo- ple could see that this was not just a rehash of previous alle- gations, but a damning indict- ment on the way the country was run. 2. Labour has lost the unity advantage Simmering tensions between Muscat and Abela were hidden behind a façade of support and unity. But voters could see through the façade, noting Muscat's de- vious strategy to use his party as a shield to save his own skin by running his own parallel campaign, dispensing benedic- tion to candidates who were defending him. This contributed to the im- pression that Labour has two leaders. Ironically Muscat, who before 2013 had changed his party's optics to make it more palatable to M.O.R. voters, this time around contributed to a retrenchment, with Labour losing its allure among more educated voters. 3. Labour had a poor line-up of candidates Labour, who in the past pre- sented candidates like Louis Grech and Edward Scicluna to appeal to the middle ground, and heavyweights with gravi- tas like Alfred Sant, presented a line-up that lacked diversity and appeal to different seg- ments of Maltese society. The absence of women with a realistic chance of election was also notable. In contrast the PN had Roberta Metsola whose appeal is not restricted to party hawks. Like Muscat before 2013, Metsola has al- ready proven herself with trib- alists, and thus could focus on the middle-ground. 4. Labour tried too hard to win big. The power of incumbency to prop up its supermajority was seen as an act of desperation Labour had a vast arsenal of targeted budget measures timed to coincide with mid- term elections and aimed at creating a feel-good factor in the country. Surely the party's anti-austerity message remains widely popular and people like receiving ex gratia cheques, but they may have got used to these cash injections and some may resent the use of these benefits as carrots just days before elec- tions. 5. The PN was not a threat in this election Voters in this election could punish Labour without any fear of consequences. In fact despite the PL's claims to the contrary, after so many super- lative Labour victories, it was the PN who was seen as the un- derdog. For Labour this Pyrrhic victo- ry could be a sign for its own voters to fear a PN resurgence. If the PN builds on this mo- mentum, it may well start to attract the talent – and cash – it needs to transform itself in a more viable option. Still, to get there the PN needs a lead- er who is seen as an alterna- tive Prime Minister. If the PN manages to win the third seat, Grech has secured his leader- ship – so far. But Bernard Grech has been lacking in the qualities re- quired for him to be trusted as a prime minister. He may still grow in his role but people will be asking him more questions on what he will do if he is elect- ed in power. Labour agents in the counting hall started celebrating after Prime Minister Robert Abela announced on national television the Labour Party had secured a majority of votes in the European election

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