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8 maltatoday | MONDAY • 10 JUNE 2024 MEP ELECTION 2024 What our polls got wrong and why SURVEYS conducted by Malta- Today, it-Torca and the Sunday Times before and during the campaign using a similar meth- odology had suggested a nar- rowed gap for Labour from the 42,500 gap in 2019 to one of be- tween 15,000 and 30,000. But this was a far cry from a result in which the gap between the parties has fallen significant- ly below 10,000 votes and a per- centage-point gap of just four points. The final surveys of all three pollsters showed a gap of be- tween 24,000 (MaltaToday) and 30,500 (The Sunday Times) with it-Torca somewhere in between, projecting a 27,500-vote differ- ence. MaltaToday's surveys showed the Labour lead increasing from 15,000 in February to 29,000 in March and dropping again to 17,000 in the beginning of April. Subsequently, the gap in La- bour's favour progressively in- creased to 20,000, 21,500 and finally to 24,000. In percentage terms MaltaTo- day registered a gap of between 6.9 points and 10.2 points with the projected turnout stabilising around 70% during the electoral campaign. All three surveys did get some things right. For example, both the Sunday Times and the Mal- taToday surveys clearly showed Metsola emerging as a front run- ner and both put Cassola in the top tier and both suggested a low score for Lowell's far right. The latest MT survey also got the ranking order of Labour's candidates right with Daniel At- tard emerging in second place and Thomas Bajada and Steve Ellul following closely behind. It also predicted that Peter Agius would get more first count votes than David Casa and David Agi- us. But while the projected turn- out was not so much off the mark from the actual one (72.8) especially after removing invalid voters, the gap between the par- ties cannot be explained by the margin of error. The stark reality is that all sur- veys went off mark by a substan- tial margin even if MaltaToday's was the closest to the result gap. Here are four reasons which may explain the discrepancy between surveys and the actual result. 1. Voters did their own thing silently in the polling booth One possibility is that a seg- ment of voters actually voted differently from the intention declared in surveys. One possi- bility is that traditional labour voters found it hard to declare their intention to vote for an- other party in surveys but felt comfortable to do so in the vot- ing booth. 2. Undecided voters were allotted to Labour but voted otherwise Another possibility is that some voters were undecided and only made up their mind towards the very end. Since all three surveys used the imputation method, the undecided were still allotted to different parties using predictor questions. Possibly while still following the patterns of Labour respond- ents, these voters ultimately end- ed up voting for other parties. In fact, previous MaltaToday surveys carried out using an- other methodology in which the undecided are included in the result, had shown the PN over- taking Labour in July 2023. 3. Some young voters voted against Labour instead of abstaining It may also have been the case, that a segment of younger vot- ers who declared their intention to abstain, ultimately ended up voting for a party which was not Labour. Surveys had shown that a considerable 40% of under 35 year olds were intent on not vot- ing. 4. Voters were overwhelmed by events while being surveyed But one major reason could well have been that the surveys were held during a tumultuous month dominated by revelations and controversy around the hos- pitals inquiry. Normally it is advisable not to hold polls right in the middle of events which are still evolving and to wait a few days to be in a position to assess their impact. But this was impossible during an electoral campaign. It is possible that people were still deliberating on who they were voting for right up to the very end, with the publication of the Vitals hospitals inquiry by MaltaToday giving politicians less control over the political narrative. This undermined La- bour's ability to press on with its mantra blaming the establish- ment. It is possible that the polls cap- tured the beginning of a trend; that of a narrowed gap which was completed in the privacy of the polling booth. Conclusion But while pollsters have a lot to ponder on, the silver lining is that this should be a cautionary tale for people who treat polls as some sort of magical prophecy. And crucially pollsters them- selves should avoid projecting themselves as some kind of ora- cles of truth. Polls are ultimately a useful tool to explore political trends providing a snapshot in a spe- cific and sometimes elusive moment in time. But while this time around polls have clearly underestimated Labour's de- cline, let's not forget that polls conducted by all three polling agencies have also predicted most political outcomes of the past two decades with a degree of accuracy. All polls conducted in the past weeks converged on an 8 to 10 point gap for Labour. What went wrong? JAMES DEBONO tries to give an answer to the conundrum.

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