Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1522634
12 ANALYSIS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 JUNE 2024 Hope under Cassola's big After winning the support of 13,000 voters, Arnold Cassola has embarked on the creation of a new 'big tent' party for middle-of-the-road and progressive voters. JAMES DEBONO asks whether it can succeed. IF there is one thing in which Arnold Cassola excels, it is his ability to make people dream he can break the ceiling of a du- opolistic party system. He can make his support- ers feel they are on the cusp of making history. Unlike other third-party wan- nabes, the independent, former Alternattiva Demokratika pol- itician has managed to project the image of a pragmatist who wants to be in a position of power to change things. And it seems he has learnt some lessons from his ephem- eral triumph 20 years ago, when AD failed to capitalise on his 23,000-vote success in the 2004 MEP election. For Cassola, the 2004 feat was followed up with a foray in Italian politics, briefly serving a centre-left MP in the Italian parliament. But this time around Cassola seems determined not to lose momentum and has set a new train in motion: A new party based on the 'big tent' formula, designed to offer a new home for centrists, leftists, and greens. But there are many stumbling blocks in the way for Cassola's new party. How the new party deals with these obstacles will determine whether it will fizzle away like previous experiments, or whether it will achieve what everyone else failed to accom- plish. 1. In MEP elections, voters vote freely, fully knowing that their vote will not determine who is in government. This will change in general elections when people determine who will be running the show in Castille Thanks to constitutional amendments carried out in 1996, dictating that the party which gains a relative major- ity of first preference votes is guaranteed a majority of seats in parliament, voters choosing a third party are giving up on hav- ing a say on which of the main parties actually wins power. If – against all odds – a third party manages to win just one seat, this constitutional amend- ment no longer applies. Neither will the constitutional amend- ment ensuring proportionality between votes and seats will apply if a third party gets a foot- hold in parliament. At that point, and only when a relative majority exists, it will be the party or coalition with the most seats (not the most votes) that gets to form a government. And this poses a strategic problem for third parties with an aspiration to win power. One way out of the conun- drum is to form a pre-elector- al coalition with an established political party. At this stage, it is bound to evoke the bitter af- termath of the Forza Nazzjonali experience, which saw the PN resenting the agreement that shed two of its seats in oppo- sition to Marlene Farrugia's Partit Demokratiku – and this makes it extremely unlikely for the PN to consider any coalition option again. Labour is even more unlikely to engage in coalition experi- ments, which would inevitably be seen as a sign of weakness. Even getting elected by taking a ride on a bigger party did not leave a lasting positive impres- sion for the PD, whose two MPs and founders did not recontest the elections. Although the PD was the first third party to break the ceiling since 1962, it did not leave a last- ing mark, and instead of finding itself in a ruling coalition, it found itself on the benches of a faction-ridden Opposition. Another option would be that of focusing on a couple of dis- tricts that might guarantee a third party one or two candi- dates through the complicated single transferable vote system, designed by the British to curb the emergence of strong nation- alistic movements in Malta and Ireland. Ireland too has retained the STV, yet it has more than six parties in parliament. But electing a third-party can- didate in one of Malta's 13 dis- tricts depends on generating enough enthusiasm in the most favourable districts, convinc- ing these voters they are once again on the cusp of historical change. As the MEP elections show, even a strong first prefer- ence showing requires a backup of second and third preferences, which is never forthcoming due to the solid block votes in both parties. Even if successful, this strate- gy could leave the country un- stable, with the relative major- ity party possibly outvoted in parliament by a rival coalition. While this is the norm in other countries, the experience could be traumatic for a country used to stable one-party govern- ments. The upside would be the end of the winner-takes-all mentali- ty. But to get there, the new par- ty must persuade voters that the benefits of a coalition outweigh the risks of instability. The new party could also re- vert to the fallback position adopted by AD during the past three decades: Standing for elections in the hope of gaining a respectable result that may in- crease the pressure for electoral reform. But the outcome of this strategy has been dismal, with AD hovering around the 1.5% mark and both parties ignoring