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MALTATODAY 16 June 2024

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15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 JUNE 2024 ANALYSIS and Germany dissatisfaction with the coali- tion: Scholz was aiming to shift German's heating systems from fossil fuels to renewable ener- gy, but the country's high court ruled the budget unconstitu- tional, denying him billions in cash needed to fund the govern- ment's plans. It exposed a rift between the SPD-Greens and the fiscally conservative FDP finance minister Christian Lind- ner, who wants to uphold Ger- many's dislike of debt. This fractious relationship might see a new crescendo when the coalition concludes talks on the 2025 budget. The result for Scholz has been devastating: his personal approval rating has also set a negative re- cord, with over 70% of Germans dissatisfied with him. Macron's gamble While there seems to be little logic in calling an election now that he has been humiliated by the far-right, Macron is intent on taking on the inevitable rise of the far-right, head-on – and this with only weeks to go for the Olympic Games in Paris, and the resulting plunge of the stock market. Dangerous game or high-stakes poker? The prospect is that Macron prefers running the far-right to the ground while he can 'con- trol' it, then allowing the party of protest a free pass to clinch the presidency in 2027. Ma- cron, who has to leave office in 2027, can use his presidential power to waste Le Pen's ener- gy, with the RN burdened with the onerous responsibilities of government, having to deal with deficits and polar- ised voters, managing im- migration and high crime rates. Far-right influence, in both the European Parlia- ment and member states, is a sign of growing uneasiness with the green transition inside the ambi- tious EU and its laws aimed at achieving carbon neutrality. Communities outside the big cities have become ripe constit- uents for far-right clarion calls, like Le Pen's, which constantly denounce the coming end of "the painful globalist paren- thesis that has made so many people suffer in the world." That's not to say that Le Pen's is not a mature call: mainstream pro-European parties won about 60% of the vote in the Eu- ropean Parliament election, and tensions between far-right par- ties can yet derail any concrete bloc influence. As an example of what is hap- pening in France, Macron is seeking a united Europe that pools its military-industrial re- sources to counter the Russian threat; but Le Pen prefers wants border control, reverse Green Deal policies that have created costly green transition meas- ures, and reduce in immigra- tion. Macron has seen the writing on the wall – his unpopular ad- ministration is struggling and instead of trudging to the end and pave the way for Le Pen, he hopes to rise to the challenge – much as Charles de Gaulle did when he dissolved Parliament in 1968 after civil unrest of that famous May, with the French choosing order and a strength- ened De Gaulle. It is unclear whether Macron will however find support from the centre-right Republicains or the miffed left coalition, which includes Jean-Luc Melenchon's communists La France In- soumise, as well as socialists and greens. Macron's aloofness and highly centralised style of ad- ministration has angered many; he faced fierce protests after raising pensionable age from 62 to 64; and now plans over €18 billion in budget cuts to rein in rising debt. His last weapon has been to call a snap election in the hope that it disorients his opponents, allowing the chaos to leave a large cloud of dust that disperses all pretenders to the throne. But the jury is certainly out on whether he is master of his own destiny, or that of France. French President Emmanuel Macron is going for broke by calling for a snap election against his nemesis, Marine Le Pen German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

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