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15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 30 JUNE 2024 ANALYSIS goes to the polls wing one which includes the far left." But he does not exclude that in a hung parliament, the traditional parties of the centre left (the so- cialists) and the centre right (the republicans) may reclaim their au- tonomy and create a new centrist alignment. He also notes that Macron's presidency is becoming increas- ingly chaotic adding that even some of Macron's lieutenants who have ambitions of their own are now considering the President's brand toxic. "The decline had started even be- fore his 2022 victory over Le Pen, which was narrower than that in 2017, but now we have entered a phase of accelerated decline," Mifsud Bonnici says. He also believes that the National Rally is also successfully courting the Catholic traditionalist vote al- ienated by Macron's decision to entrench abortion rights in the French constitution, even if Ma- rine Le Pen herself has threaded carefully on this issue not to al- ienate more liberal voters. In fact, Le Pen had voted in favour of the constitutional change proposed by Macron while arguing that it was unnecessary. The most crucial post war election Author and broadcaster Charles Xuereb, describes today's election as one of the most crucial post-war elections in French history which could have "extremely tough" im- plications and may even produce a hung parliament. He also sees a risk that the result could dent Macron's stature on the European stage especially if he is forced to consider cohabitation with the extreme right. But he also notes that Macron will still be President until 2027 even if his party loses. "Certainly, it is the personal re- lation between the two that de- termines the success of cohabita- tion... the president has room to manoeuvre to oppose the prime minister, without going too far," Xuereb says, quoting legal expert Didier Maus, in Le Figaro this week. Xuereb also thinks that when calling a snap election, Macron was also banking on the feel good atmosphere in Paris, with the Tour de France starting yesterday, the possibility of France's Euro foot- ball team advancing to reach the finals on 14 July, which is French National Day, and the upcoming windfall of the Olympic Games in less than a month. He also notes growing apprehen- sion on the electoral promises of both the far right and the far left. Bardella is promising to imme- diately lower the level of VAT on energy bills and fuel, concede tax breaks, to raise salaries by 10% and reverse Macron's pension reform. "Details on financial arrange- ments, however, remain vague," Xuereb says. But according to Xuereb the most contentious proposal made by the National Rally is abolishing the right to French nationality for those born to foreign parents on French soil. But even the left-wing New Pop- ular Front is creating shockwaves by promising to raise the min- imum wage by 13%, bring back the wealth tax, cap energy prices and reverse pensions to start at 60 down from 66, as legislated recent- ly. "The business lobby exclaimed that this is madness, even when compared to NF's proposals," Xuereb says. But he also sees signs of hope for the embattled French President. "Last Thursday there was a huge demonstration for Liberté! in Paris attended by many NGOs, includ- ing women's, anti-racist and eco- logical movements, and this offers a ray of hope for Macron." The demonstrators warned that the extreme right would govern by fear and encouraged the public not to abstain, using the slogan Nous, on vote!" But surveys, "which could go wrong, appear to show that voters have forgotten Macron's attain- ments when inflation and jobless- ness as well as energy bills dur- ing the pandemic were brought down". The French electoral system explained Today the French will be elect- ing the members of the national assembly and will not be electing a new President. Emmanuel Macron whose term will expire in 2027 will remain in charge of national security and for- eign policy. He will also have the power to name the next prime minister but crucially the latter will also have to enjoy a majority in the national as- sembly. The outcome of the election will not be determined today because French elections are determined in two rounds of voting. Today French voters will mark their preferred candidate contest- ing their constituency with an "X". Those candidates who win 50% or more of the vote are immediately elected. But in those constituen- cies were none of the candidates manage to garner such a major- ity, the top two candidates and any other candidate who got the support of at least 12.5% of reg- istered voters will go to a second ballot due on 7 July. The candidate with the most votes in the second round will become a member of parliament. The system is meant to favour mainstream parties who enjoy broad support. In past elections it also meant that parties from the left to the centre right would unite to block the election of the far right to parliament. But this seems more unlikely in this election, in which a significant part of the cen- tre-right Republicans including party leader Ciotti are backing Bardella's party. Jordan Bardella is leading the National Rally and could become France's next prime minister if the far-right party captures enough seats Latest Poll: Ifop-Fiducial poll • Fieldwork: 24-27 June 2024 • Sample size: 2,823 Carm Mifsud Bonnici Charles Xuereb