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2 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 21 JULY 2024 ANALYSIS His Gonzi phase: Why Abela's The apparent insubordination of two Labour MEPs who defied Robert Abela's declared support for rival Robert Metsola's EP presidency sends a message that the prime minister, like Lawrence Gonzi before him, might be losing his grip over a fractious party. JAMES DEBONO compares Abela's troubles to those faced by Gonzi at the PN's nadir, and asks if history is repeating itself. ROBERT Abela's first foray in politics was an address to the party general conference in January 2012, a full year before Labour's victory, in which he denounced the "small clique" that had taken over the country under the Nationalist adminis- tration of Lawrence Gonzi. It was a deft overreach for the son of the man whom Gonzi had installed as President of the Republic in 2009, soon after George Abela lost the Labour leadership bid to Joseph Mus- cat. But in the standing ovation he received, the ice had been broken between the Abelas and Muscat, and it healed the rift George Abela provoked in 1998 when he abandoned Alfred Sant's sinking ship, becoming a 'darling' of the PN-aligned establishment for supporting Malta's EU membership. The Nationalists rebuked the young Abela for his ingrati- tude, dubbing him yet anoth- er Labour firebrand despite his father's pedigree. But back then, few would have anticipat- ed that this future prime minis- ter of Malta would end up fac- ing the same problems Gonzi endured in his second, and final administration – the per- ception that Malta is run by a "small clique", that the govern- ment is indecisive, and that the PM's authority is increasingly challenged within the party. The parallels do not stop there. Both Gonzi and Rob- ert Abela found themselves as prime ministers after bitter internal contests in their re- spective parties, both replacing larger than life predecessors: Eddie Fenech Adami, the lead- er who anchored Malta in the European Union, and Joseph Muscat who transformed La- bour into the most successful electoral machine in Malta's post-war history. There are even parallels in Gonzi's first electoral test in MEP elections held in 2004, and those held last June, where in both cases a significant por- tion of voters migrated from the ruling party to independ- ents and third parties in a clear warning that voters cannot be taken for granted. Another striking similarity is that, as was the case between 2004 and 2008, voters are now increasingly restless and dis- satisfied with the ruling party but are not yet able to trust the Opposition to govern. For like Gonzi before him, Abela still enjoys higher trust ratings than the Opposition leader. And this raises the prospect of history repeating itself again in 2027, when Abela will face Ber- nard Grech again in the polls, where unlike in MEP elections voters will be choosing a gov- ernment and who will be prime minister. Like Labour's maligned Al- fred Sant, Bernard Grech may well catch up to Abela, but not enough to win, paving the way for another five difficult years in government for Abela where he would likely face a strong- er Opposition leader, possibly Roberta Metsola. But the fact that a twice-de- feated Sant was just 1,500 votes short of victory should stand as a reminder that nothing can be excluded in politics. Just as in the Gonzi adminis- tration, we are now seeing pub- lic disdain and scepticism to- wards official explanations on power outages or contaminat- ed beaches, reminiscent of the public reaction to the blunders of the Gonzi administration on the Arriva debacle and the use of heavy fuel oil in Delimara. It is a growing distrust in the government's ability to effec- tively manage and transparent- ly communicate crises, one of Labour's strong points during the COVID pandemic. And while Abela is more flex- ible on moral issues than the conservative Gonzi, abortion is still a hard pill to swallow for Labour's own conservative wing. Abela's backtracking on a bill allowing abortion in cas- es where the mother's health is in jeopardy left a bitter taste among progressive voters. Like Gonzi on divorce, Abela may well end up calling a referen- dum at the risk of splitting his base. The obvious differences Sure, the differences are ob- vious. For one, the PN, even at its peak and unlike Labour in 2013, 2017 and 2022, had never won with a stratospheric majority. Despite its aura of invincibility, the PN has never surpassed the 52% mark in elections. Unlike Gonzi – who won only one national election in 2008 and then with a relative major- ity four full years after becom- ing party leader – Abela's lead- ership was cemented by a 55% majority in elections held two years after being elected party leader. Unlike Gonzi in 2008, he does not have to worry that a lone backbencher can bring him down, as Franco Debono did in 2012 after a torturous four years fraught by conflict, with other backbenchers like Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando mak- ing life hard for Gonzi. And while Gonzi's rival in the leadership contest, John Dalli, remained a thorn in his side till the very end, Abela was keen on keeping Chris Fearne by his side. Similarly to Gonzi he toyed with the idea of kick- ing Fearne upstairs to the Euro- pean Commission, before this plan was foiled by the latter's arraignment in the Vitals case. Another major difference is the way both PMs react to in- ternational instability, particu- larly on energy: Gonzi's fate was sealed by public anger on the hike in utility bills, while Abe- la has so far shielded the people from similar increases. But Gonzi never faced the gov- ernance crisis of the scale Abe- la inherited from Muscat, now reaching its head with the Vitals corruption prosecutions. And it was only at the very end that Gonzi was rocked by the Ene- malta oil scandal uncovered by MaltaToday in the final days of the administration. The PN ruled Malta for 24 long years between 1987 and 2013, interrupted only by Sant's brief tenure at Castille between 1996 and 1998; Labour has only been