Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1529458
mt SURVEY SUNDAY • 17 NOVEMBER 2024 | maltatoday ministers Clint Camilleri and Clayton Bartolo were found guilty of an ethical breach by the Standards Commission- er. This development may have damp- ened the budget's feel good factor. While the gap between the two main parties is well within the survey's mar- gin of error, the results strongly indicate that the PN has substantially narrowed, or wiped out, Labour's 39,000-vote ad- vantage in the 2022 general election. Compared to the 2022 general elec- tion, the survey suggests that the PL has lost a staggering 49,145 votes, which are now mostly parked in the non-vot- ers camp. However, the PN has only lost 7,024 votes while non-voters have increased by a staggering 53,478. A comparison with vote tallies from the June MEP election shows the PL losing 4,243 votes. In contrast, the PN gains 6,858 votes. The survey also suggests that support for third parties in a forthcoming gen- eral election would rise to over 8%, split between 4.1%, who would vote for AD- PD and 4.2% for other parties. PL losing votes to abstention One major reason for the PN's lead is its higher retention rate of 2022 gener- al election voters. While the PL barely retains 69% of its former voters, the PN retains 86% of its 2022 voters. Significantly, while the PN loses just 3.9% of its 2022 voters to abstention, the PL loses 25.7% of its general elec- tion voters to the non-voting camp. Moreover, Labour's losses to absten- tion are topped up by smaller losses to the PN. While the PN loses only 2% of its 2022 voters to Labour, it gains 4.1% of Labour voters from the same general election. The PN also makes greater inroads than Labour among people who did not vote in the 2022 general election – 11.8% of whom will now vote PN compared to 8.1% who will vote La- bour. Nonetheless, these gains are off- set by greater PN losses to third parties. While Labour is only losing 1.2% of its 2022 voters to third parties, the PN is losing 7.8% of its general election vot- ers to ADPD and other parties. PN leads in 4 out of 6 regions The survey shows the PN has tak- en the lead in the Northern, North Harbour, Western, and Gozo regions, while the PL still leads by a wide margin in the South-eastern region and in the South Harbour. The PN's support peaks in the North- ern region where the party commands a relative majority of 45.4% and is lead- ing the PL by a staggering 21 points. The party also leads the PL by nearly 10 points in the North Harbour region and by eight points in the Western region. In Gozo, the only region correspond- ing to an electoral district, the PN is leading Labour by just one point which suggests that Labour has gained ground since September when the PN carried the district with a nine-point advan- tage. This suggests that the budget had a positive impact on Gozitans. Moreover, the survey finds that sup- port for Labour remains rock solid in the South-eastern region, where the party leads the PN by 21 points and the South Harbour region where it leads the PN by 23 points. ADPD registers its best score in the North Harbour region (4.7%) while other third parties peak in the North- ern region at 6.9%. In the Northern re- gion more than a tenth of respondents would vote for a third party if an elec- tion is held now. PN leads among under 50s, post- secondary educated and women The survey shows the PN leading by two points among 16- to 35-year- olds and by seven points among those aged between 36 and 50. But Labour is leading by nine points among 51- and 65-year-olds. However, the two big parties are running neck and neck among pensioners, where the PN is leading by less than two points. Abstention peaks among younger voters. The results show that 37.7% of 16- to 35-year-olds and 36.4% of 36- to 50-year-olds will not vote. However, abstention drops to 32.9% among 51- to 65-year-olds and to just 10.6% among pensioners. The survey also finds the PN mak- ing inroads among respondents who did not attend university but followed post-secondary education, a catego- > FROM PREVIOUS PAGE Voting intentions: Voters in the MEP election Voting intentions: 2022 voters