Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1530881
3 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 22 DECEMBER 2024 2024 LOOKING BACK supermajority bour, particularly after Abela's U-turn on the Jean Paul Sofia inquiry back in 2023. The PN leapt ahead for the first time ever, thanks to a surge in ab- stention among Labour voters. The trend has continued af- ter the mid-term elections, with the last two political sur- veys, including one after the budget, showing the two par- ties' neck-and-neck, with the PN registering a wafer-thin majority. This isn't due to a significant number of voters switching sides, but because they remain firmly in the ab- stentionist camp. Surveys still offer Labour a glimmer of hope. Despite Labour's dip, Abela remains more trusted than Opposition leader Bernard Grech, and the government's performance is still judged positively by a ma- jority of voters. Hopes of a re- covery in the coming months are not entirely misplaced. Labour would comfortably re- gain the lead if all those who trust Abela more than Grech and who rate the government positively were to vote for Labour in a general election, where the stakes are higher than in the MEP elections. But this scenario is reminis- cent of the PN's decline during Lawrence Gonzi's first term in office when he was consist- ently more trusted than Alfred Sant. Sant's political career was damaged by staying on as leader despite losing two consecutive elections and a referendum. Present PN lead- er Bernard Grech, like Sant in 2008, is seen as the underdog with little chance of winning. Yet, despite everything, Sant was just 1,500 votes away from winning the 2008 election. Could Grech deliver a similar surprise in 2027, possibly even becoming PM or paving the way for the next PN leader in 2032? The end of a cycle What is certain is that the MEP election result has dealt a major psychological blow to a party accustomed to winning big. In 2023, voters cut Abe- la and Labour down to size, showing them the proverbial yellow card. To some extent, Labour may be facing the inevitable wear and tear of more than a decade in power in a country where political cycles generally last a decade. This was the case with Labour between 1971 and 1981 (when it lost the major- ity but retained a majority of seats) and the PN between 1987 and 1996 and between 1998 and 2008 (when it lost its absolute majority but clung to power with a wafer-thin mar- gin). This trend is reflected in the growing scepticism —and in some cases, outright con- tempt—towards the govern- ment, exemplified by the pub- lic backlash against former Tourism Minister Clayton Bartolo following a scandal in- volving the employment of his wife by Gozo Minister Clint Camilleri. Once again, Abela was forced to shift his approach, just as he had with the Jean Paul Sofia inquiry, confronted by a pub- lic reaction he had failed to anticipate. Even during the MEP elec- tion campaign, Abela's at- tempt to galvanise Labour vot- ers by attacking the so-called establishment over Joseph Muscat's arraignment failed miserably. This was a clear in- dication that Labour's formi- dable coalition of moderates, progressives, and die-hards was faltering. Labour's greatest advantage over the PN – the perception of unity behind its leader – has also been fatally weakened. Cracks emerged during the summer when former Party General Secretary Jason Mi- callef shocked Abela by briefly entertaining the prospect of becoming deputy leader. Abela averted a move that could have further weakened the party's standing with mod- erates by accepting a compro- mise candidate, a sitting MEP, as his deputy leader for party affairs. The new leadership troika includes two potential future leaders: Ian Borg and Alex Agius Saliba. While this formula binds their fate to Abela, it could lead to sparks if Borg and Agius Saliba start feeling that Abela has become an albatross weighing on their future ambitions. The decline of Labour's coalition Abela now faces a quandary. Any push to appease Mus- cat loyalist's risks alienating middle-of-the-road voters ap- palled by the scale of the Vi- tals scandal. At the same time, Abela cannot afford to lose the support of die-hard Labourites who remain fond of his prede- cessor. Other cracks also emerged. While in 2013, Labour man- aged to appeal to both devel- opers and environmentalists in a precarious balancing act, the party now faces disgrun- tlement in its own constitu- encies. It also faces an Oppo- sition eager to mend ties with developers. The PN's muted reaction to the Villa Rosa local plan change and its complicity in a motion allowing the present owner of Fort Chambray to sell the concession to devel- opers are clear indications of this. Moreover, the PN's per- ceived, albeit remote, chance of winning the next election means developers are taking a greater interest in the party and are more willing to invest in it, offering a lifeline to a bankrupt organisation. Labour voters, on the other hand, are becoming bolder in taking their party to task on land use and environmental issues. Some may even defect, as seen in the case of former Gżira mayor Conrad Borg Manche, who won 6,000 first- count votes in the MEP elec- tion despite lacking a national platform. Labour's balancing act on migration also remains pre- carious. Non-EU workers are a crucial peg in the current eco- nomic model, which generates revenue by sustaining subsi- dies on energy costs and the recently announced tax cuts. While voters may take such measures for granted, Abela knows that any hike in energy prices or taxes would be dev- astating for Labour. Yet, Labour has failed to excite progressive voters in 2024, a small but influential category. After backtracking on abortion reform in 2023, Labour shied away from fur- ther tempering abortion laws. The end-of-year decision to commence a debate on assist- ed dying may be an attempt to retain the progressive edge while exposing the PN's con- servatism.