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KURT SANSONE ksansone@mediatoday.com.mt 5 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 22 DECEMBER 2024 2024 LOOKING BACK She came. She saw. She conquered… and left ROBERTA Metsola was un- doubtedly the shark in the pond at the last European election, with an outsized candidature compared to her running mates and opponents. Voting in her hometown of Sliema, it was no surprise that Metsola was featured in Google's 'Year in Search' video, where she commented, "2024 will be the biggest global election year in history." As president of the European Parliament and with a mission to encourage young people to go out and vote, she generated Eu- rope-wide interest – both good and bad. In Malta, her celebri- ty status was undeniable at PN meetings, where crowds eagerly jostled to speak with her and take selfies. The presence of a securi- ty detail, by virtue of her public role, only helped enhance Met- sola's importance in the eyes of a star-struck crowd. She never said much when addressing PN meetings – she stuck to a script that spoke of hope without delving into policy – but said enough to keep people believing that a better future was possible. And though Metsola was not at the centre of the PN's electoral campaign, her election perfor- mance was impressive. She ob- tained a record-breaking 87,473 first-count votes, equivalent to 34% of all valid votes cast and 80% of all votes obtained by the PN. It was not as if Metsola's perfor- mance was ever in doubt, but the big question mark hanging over the PN was whether her shine could rub off on the party and help bridge the massive gap with Labour. In the end, it did. The PN still came second, but it won back a third seat and saw the 40,000-vote lead the Labour Par- ty had obtained in the 2019 EP election shrink to a mere 8,000 votes. The outcome provided the PN with a ray of hope in a long, arid period characterised by dis- mal survey results. The EP result gave the PN hope that the PL juggernaut was, after all, beata- ble, and the super-majority was assailable. But after the EP result came the inevitable question: Will Metso- la stay to lead the PN at the next general election? The answer came a few weeks later when Metsola was ap- proved as the European Peo- ple's Party's lead candidate for a second term as European Parliament president. Her can- didature was approved by 90% of the vote, cementing Metso- la's status as a leading European politician with aspirations that transcend Malta's shores. The abstentions of Labour MEPs Alex Agius Saliba and Daniel Attard only helped strengthen the local perception that Met- sola could be the biggest threat to Labour in Malta. When asked point-blank whether she would be contesting the next general election in Mal- ta – due at the latest in July 2027 – her reply was, "We will see." Metsola's term as parliament president ends in January 2027, and it is clear that she will run the full course. With the general election date being the prerog- ative of Prime Minister Robert Abela, he may very well choose to go to the polls in 2026 in an attempt to deprive the PN of its star candidate. But whatever date the Prime Minister chooses, it is now clear that Grech will be at the helm of the PN, not Metsola. This is the realisation that has started to sink in among PN sup- porters, who, until June, were hoping that, like a knight in shining armour, Metsola would ride all the way to Pietà and take charge of the party. Increasingly, since June, the PN has tried to project itself as a government-in-waiting and not simply as an Opposition. The only measure we have to gauge the effectiveness of this strategic shift is the regular polling con- ducted by MaltaToday and other reputable outlets. In the two MaltaToday surveys held after the summer months, the PN was ahead of Labour each time by a relative majority that fell within the margin of error. The second survey was held after the budget, which showed that despite the government ex- periencing a bounce, this was not strong enough to leapfrog the PN. It would seem that the PN without Metsola has reached a stage where it can be a compet- itive force. Nonetheless, Grech's trust rating remains dismally low when compared to Abela's, which leaves the PN facing an uphill struggle. Abela enjoys a stronger trust rating than Grech among voters who are saying they will abstain if an election were held now. This gives the PL greater room for growth. The question PN strategists will have to contend with is whether voters are willing to see Grech and not Metsola or Abela walk up the stairs of Castille to be- come prime minister after the next election. Selling Grech to a fickle elec- torate that is willing to punish Labour but unwilling to auto- matically hitch its wagon to the PN will not be an easy proposi- tion. However, 2024 has shown that the realisation that Grech is here to stay until the next election has finally unshackled the PN from holding on to eternal hope in a Metsola leadership that may never materialise. This realisation allows PN strategists the space to focus, but crucially, it gives Grech the cer- tainty that the next big battle is his alone to win or lose. The PN leader will have to step up and convince a sceptical elec- torate that he will be a good prime minister who is unafraid to make hard decisions and is able to rep- resent everyone, even those who do not support the PN. Howev- er, in a scenario where Metsola's larger-than-life persona remains a reality that cannot be ignored, Grech will have to portray great- er self-confidence. If 2024 is an- ything to go by, Grech still has a tough journey ahead. After a mesmerising performance in the European election, Roberta Metsola has left PN supporters with a growing realisation that she will not be leaving Brussels, and Bernard Grech will be the one to lead the charge for Castille in the next general election