Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1530962
2 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 29 DECEMBER 2024 KURT SANSONE ksansone@mediatoday.com.mt 2025 LOOKING FORWARD 2025: The Year of Disruption DONALD Trump's second term as US president is probably the single most important event happening in 2025 that will cause global disruption. With full control of the Senate and the House and no re-election after his term ends, Trump will use his time in office to secure his legacy. On two crucial fronts – the economy and security – Trump's decisions, embodied in his America First policy, will have consequences for Europe and the world. Malta will be no ex- ception. Economist JP Fabri says Trump's resurgence should serve as a wake-up call. "His America First rhetoric, coupled with a fo- cus on economic self-sufficiency and innovation, exposes Europe's vulnerabilities," he argues. Fabri speaks of an EU that is cautious, overtly bureaucratic, and unable to adapt to a world shaped by technological break- throughs. He says: "If Europe continues on its current trajecto- ry, it risks irrelevance, side-lined in a global economy increasingly dominated by those willing to embrace disruption and reinven- tion." Mario Draghi's report on Eu- rope's competitiveness and En- rico Letta's on the single market, published in 2024, provided an analysis of Europe's persistent weaknesses. EU weaknesses exposed In 2025, with an isolationist Trump taking over the reins in America, these weaknesses are likely to be exacerbated. Take, for instance, Trump's threat of tariffs being imposed on European goods unless the EU imports more oil and gas from the US. According to the US Census Bureau, the EU exported $576.3 billion worth of goods – nearly 20% of its total exports – to the US in 2023. This makes the US the bloc's second-largest trading partner, and one it cannot afford to lose. In these circumstances, the EU can either seek appease- ment or retaliate with similar tariffs on American goods. However, this game of high stakes exposes the EU's high de- pendency on third countries for its energy needs. The Green Deal was supposed to be the EU's answer to a clean- er, home-grown energy sector, but its implementation remains slow and cumbersome. Draghi said a decarbonised en- ergy system would "radically de- crease import dependency" and, as a consequence, increase ener- gy security and resilience. This drive, he argued, also offers an opportunity to address, at least in the medium term, one of the key problems for European in- dustry – energy prices that are higher than those of the US and China. However, Draghi noted that to capitalise on these opportuni- ties, decarbonisation had to be coupled with competitiveness, requiring a more interconnected and flexible EU bureaucracy. Adopting a more carrot-based approach rather than relying solely on the stick may help the EU transition to greener pastures without putting its industries and families at a disadvantage, whilst also creating green jobs. Europe's security challenge The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a rude awakening for the EU in terms of its oil and gas dependency on Russia. Similarly, 2025 could bring about the realisation that Europe must also stand up on its own two feet for its defence and security needs because its friend across the Atlantic is not inter- ested in playing his part. An isolationist Trump will in- creasingly disengage from Eu- rope and NATO, leaving the bloc to fend for itself at a time when war continues to rage in Ukraine and when hybrid attacks are on the rise. This will require more defence spending by EU member states and greater cooperation to un- dertake joint initiatives if the will to do so can be found. Trump's 'plan' for Ukraine still has to unfold, but it will likely be conditional on Ukraine hav- ing to cede territory to Russia in exchange for peace. Wheth- er Ukraine will give in to such an indecent proposal remains to be seen, but pragmatism and the EU's inability to prop up the Ukrainian war machine on its own will likely force its hand. The outcome will be a victo- ry for Vladimir Putin, who will be emboldened by the US's dis- engagement policy. Russia will remain a threat to European se- curity, whether this comes in the form of conventional warfare, GPS blocking, sabotage of un- dersea cables, or hacking. Retired army officer Col. David Attard believes Trump's presi- dency will significantly challenge European defence and security. "Without strong US backing for NATO's deterrence measures or firm condemnation of Russian actions, countries in Eastern Eu- rope might feel more vulnerable and isolated," he says. Attard believes the EU will need a "more integrated and self-reliant" defence strategy, but getting there is another sto- ry altogether. "Europe is already way too late to achieve this, and a level of appeasement towards Trump is expected, thus weak- ening Europe further as a global actor," he adds. And the timing of Trump's ascendency to power could not