Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1530962
7 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 29 DECEMBER 2024 2025 LOOKING FORWARD THE second term for US Presi- dent Donald Trump shall pres- ent several challenges to Europe's defence and security landscape. These challenges stem from his 'America First' foreign policy, his declared scepticism of military and defence alliances, and his his- torically transactional approach to both NATO and European secu- rity. We are in a second term of glob- al security and defence uncertain- ty. Suffice it to mention the rede- signed state of Ukraine, the new strategic balance being created in the Middle East following the events in Syria, and the wider im- plications for Iran, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the ever-pres- ent issue of Palestinian self-de- termination. These developments need to be balanced against the challenges the US shall face from China, as well as the role North Korea shall continue to play in Eu- rope and the Far East region. Uncertainty about NATO's future Trump has previously ques- tioned the value of NATO and whether the US should continue to support the alliance. His calls for European allies to increase their defence spending will proba- bly escalate, and there is a risk that NATO's collective defence princi- ple could be undermined if Euro- pean partners do not agree to this. If Trump were to revisit or esca- late these views, European nations may find themselves uncertain about America's commitment to mutual defence under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. This may further embolden Putin within the wider scheme of things, while Europe may end up needing to re-evaluate its defence strategies and armed forces. Even if Trump remains commit- ted to NATO, he has repeatedly criticised European NATO mem- bers for not meeting their defence spending target when compared to GDP. He was recently reported to have said that he wanted NA- TO members to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP. Trump's request involves more than dou- bling NATO's current spending target. This pressure shall lead to further transatlantic friction. While European nations may feel compelled to increase defence budgets to avoid Trump's criti- cism, this could strain their do- mestic politics and budgets, espe- cially in European countries with non-performing economies or where there is political resistance to increase military spending by such large amounts. Trump has at times suggested reducing the US military presence in Europe, especially in countries like Germany. If he were to follow through on this threat, it would have a profound impact on Euro- pean security, forcing EU mem- bers to assume greater responsi- bility for their own defence. This could prompt a re-evaluation of European military capabilities, potentially pushing for more in- tegration and cooperation within the EU's defence framework but also leading to short- and medi- um-term concerns about Europe's ability to defend itself without American support. Isolationist policies Trump's 'America First' foreign policy could lead to further dis- tancing from global institutions such as the UN, apart from alli- ances such as NATO. This could make Europe more vulnerable to external threats, particularly from Russia and China. Europe would be forced to navigate these glob- al challenges largely on its own, feeling rather exposed within a context where Trump's approach to Russia has, at best, been rather controversial, with critics accus- ing him of being too lenient to- ward President Vladimir Putin. If Trump were to continue or esca- late this policy, Europe could face increased challenges in counter- ing Russian aggression, especially in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Without strong US backing for NATO's deterrence measures or firm condemnation of Russian ac- tions, countries in Eastern Europe might feel more vulnerable and isolated. Trump has also shown little in- terest in multi-lateral missions intended to keep the peace, such as those led by the EU or the UN. European nations could thus find it harder to rely on the US for sup- port in countering global crises, including crises in regions close to home, particularly in the Middle East and on the Ukraine border. Challenges to transatlantic economic relations Trump's economic policies are very much based on protective tariff regimes. The potential im- pact of a trade war with the EU could further strain European economies. This could, in turn, af- fect the ability of European coun- tries to further increase defence spending. Additionally, Trump's confron- tational style could also exacer- bate divisions within the EU, as member states may differ on how to respond to American demands or shifting alliances. Cybersecurity, technology and climate change Trump's focus on bilateral agree- ments rather than multilateral solutions could weaken interna- tional efforts to address cyberse- curity and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence. This could leave Europe more exposed to cyberattacks, particularly from adversaries like Russia, China and North Korea. This could reduce the effectiveness of global regu- lations that ensure secure com- munication and data systems on which we have all become so de- pendent. Trump's scepticism about cli- mate change and his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could hinder global efforts to tackle the environmental impacts that con- tribute to global insecurity. Ex- treme weather events, resource shortages, and migration crises resulting from climate change have security implications, and Europe's security policy is likely to be affected if the US continues to downplay these issues. A weaker Europe The Trump Presidency repre- sents a significant challenge to European defence and security, particularly in light of the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and wider global instability. While the US remains a key player in global security, Trump's isolationist approach and his fo- cus on getting Europe to take on more responsibility for its own de- fence may make Europe weaker in the short to medium term. The war in Ukraine, the re-draw- ing of the maps in the Middle East, and the rise of China and North Korea's active participation in the war in Europe provide global threats that emphasise the need for a more integrated and self-re- liant European Defence Strategy. However, Europe is already way too late to achieve this, and a level of appeasement towards Trump is to be expected, thus weakening Europe further as a global actor. 2025: Trump's threats pose challenge to European security, defence David Attard is a retired army colonel and former deputy commander of the Armed Forces of Malta David Attard