Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1531391
7 ANALYSIS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 12 JANUARY 2025 showed the Nationalist Party gaining the lead for the first time, thanks to an increase in abstention in Labour's ranks. This followed Abela's initial resistance to a public inquiry into the death of Jean Paul Sofia, which drew widespread criticism. While he later backtracked, the damage to his trust ratings was done. Abela's spectacular misjudgements Abela's failure to empathise with a grieving mother marked one of his gravest political misjudgements. In this sense, it was Isabelle Bonnici who, through sheer perseverance, managed to cut Abela down to size. Another blunder was his reluctance to distance himself from Muscat, whose influence lingered like an al- batross. Abela's attempts to pre- empt the conclusions of a magiste- rial inquiry into the sale of public hospitals by attacking the inquiring magistrate only played into Mus- cat's narrative. The inquiry's findings dominated headlines during the 2024 MEP elections, where Labour's ma- jority shrank to just over 8,000 votes. And while Abela hoped that the tim- ing of the inquiry would galvanise the Labour core vote, the result suggests that Muscat's antics had cost the party support among middle-of-the- road and principled voters appalled by corruption. Corrections and continuity With his leadership weakened, Abe- la became even more cautious about provoking Muscat, whose allies, in- cluding Jason Micallef and Neville Gafà, continued to disrupt his lead- ership. Threatened by the old guard, Abela has become keener on pressing the 'continuity' button. The recent reappointment of Johann Buttigieg as Planning Authority CEO also suggests that Abela is increasingly reliant on Muscat-era officials in key positions, exposing his failure to co-opt a new generation of his own making. Moreover, Abela's reticence to hon- our his own pledge to stop construc- tion works on projects under appeal, coupled with local plan changes to ac- commodate the development of Vil- la Rosa, suggests continuity with the pro-development bias under Muscat. However, his recent reform of la- bour migration policies also suggests an attempt to 'correct' the excesses of the Muscat era, especially in view of disgruntlement over the increase of non-EU workers and concerns about their exploitation as a source of cheaper labour. While reforms pe- nalising companies with a high turn- over of migrants and a ban on cash payments are promising, it remains to be seen whether the reform will address wage stagnation in those sec- tors where imported foreign labour is most prevalent. Moreover, Abela still lacks the con- fidence of his predecessor to coura- geously press for progressive social reforms. Although he implemented a reform of drug laws permitting can- nabis clubs, he disappointed femi- nists by backtracking on the issue of abortion. The presentation of a White Paper on assisted dying expected later this year could be an attempt to re- store Labour's reformist credentials. But Abela's most pressing concern remains the restoration of purchasing power eroded by inflation. Facing neg- ative polls, as confirmed by end-of- year surveys, Abela pinned his hopes on a generous tax cut announced in October's budget. Although the tax cut's impact on personal incomes will only start appearing in pay cheques at the end of this month, the positive news was overshadowed by a scandal involving former tourism minister Clayton Bartolo, whom Abela reluc- tantly dismissed after initially defend- ing him. Having set the bar high in his first few months in office, Abela has become increasingly cautious about losing key figures. His electoral hopes now rest on the tax cut's potential to stimulate spending and drive economic growth further. Despite Labour's losses in the latest polls, Abela's trust rating has held steady at around 43%, suggesting that while his image has taken a hit, he can still turn things around in the coming months. 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Feb-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Mar-24 May-24 May-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Trust Rating Date Trust Rating Source / MaltaToday Surveys Tracking the prime minister's public trust from 2020 to 2024 General election: 26 March MEP election: 8 June Robert Abela's Trust Rating Click on the red circles to read about key events during Abela's tenure