Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1532058
JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt mt SURVEY SUNDAY • 2 FEBRUARY 2025 | maltatoday 6 PN ahead despite losses to MaltaToday Gozo Survey THE Gozitan electorate is in flux with different categories of voters moving in different directions, a MaltaToday regional survey suggests. While Labour is mostly losing votes to abstention and to the PN, the Na- tionalists are losing more votes to third parties. The MaltaToday Gozo survey shows that ultimately the PN is gain- ing more votes than it is losing, and based on a predicted turnout of 80% – down from 88% in the 2022 general election – the PN is now leading La- bour by 5.7 points in the region. This represents a drastic reversal of fortunes for the PL which back in 2022 had enjoyed a 10-point advan- tage over the PN. The survey shows that in Gozo the PN is now leading the PL by 1,649 votes, overturning Labour's consid- erable 2,530-vote lead in the 2022 general election. The survey suggests that while La- bour has lost 3,770 votes since 2022, the PN has gained a modest 409 votes while the third-party vote has in- creased by a remarkable 2,015 votes. The PN has only increased its vote share by three points over the 2022 election but the PL's share has de- creased by 11 points. Third parties have seen their share of the vote in- crease by eight points. Significant shift from PL to PN The PN's positive result comes amidst a considerable shift in its fa- vour of 2022 Labour voters. While the PN is only losing 1.3% of its 2022 voters to Labour, the PL is losing 9.6% of its Gozitan voters to the Nationalists. In this case the shift from the PL to the PN in Gozo is more pronounced than that in national surveys. The last national MaltaToday survey car- ried out in November showed that only 4% of PL voters in 2022 would vote PN in a future election. Moreo- ver, this shift was partly offset by 3% of PN voters who would now vote PL. But as is the case on a national level, Labour is more heavily penalised by abstention than the PN. The Gozo survey shows that while 16% of PL voters in the 2022 general election are now intent on not vot- ing, only 4% of PN voters in that elec- tion will do likewise. The shift to third parties But the survey also shows the PN losing more votes to third parties than Labour. While Labour is losing 3% of its 2022 voters to ADPD and just 0.3% to other parties, the PN is losing nearly 5.6% of its 2022 vote to ADPD and a further 5.7% to other parties. Overall, while the PL is losing 3.3% to third parties, the PN is losing 11% of its 2022 vote to smaller parties. The survey also suggests that flows to new parties follow a different tra- jectory than those for ADPD. While ADPD manages to take votes from both established parties, new politi- cal forces are mostly draining the PN vote. But new political forces are also taking a significant portion of people who did not vote in the 2022 general election. In this category 10.3% will vote for these parties while only 3.3% will vote ADPD. Overall, the survey suggests that PN losses to third parties are offset by its gains from Labour and the greater abstention in the cohort of 2022 La- bour voters. In fact while the PN re- tains 83.5% of its 2022 voters, Labour only retains 71% of its voters. PL, ADPD and new parties stronger among younger voters The survey shows the PL still lead- ing the PN in Gozo among under 50-year-olds. While the PL leads by three points among 16- to 35-year- olds, it leads by 9.5 points among 35- maltatoday PL 41.7% ADPD 5.8% PN 47.4% Others 5.1% Age Gender 2022 Voters 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 33% 30.1% 34.3% 24.8% 32% 30.2% 39.8% 34.6% 55% Gozo Voting Intentions All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 SURVEY Gozo vote 2022