Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1532058
mt SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 2 FEBRUARY 2025 7 to third parties to 50-year-olds. But the PN is lead- ing by a considerable margin among older voters: 9.6 points among 51- to 65-year-olds and by 20 points among pensioners. The survey also shows third parties making strong inroads among young- er voters. Among 16- to 35-year-olds a considerable 17% opt for third par- ties, equally split between ADPD and 'others'. ADPD retains its dominance of the third-party field among voters aged between 36 and 65, but new par- ties score better than ADPD among Gozitans aged over 65. But the percentage opting for third parties drops from 17% among 16- to 35-year-olds to 9% among 36- to 50-year-olds, to 7% among 50- to 65-year-olds and to just 2% among pensioners. Abstention highest among 36- to 50-year-olds The survey shows that that absten- tion in Gozo peaks among those aged between 36 to 50 where nearly a third (32%) are intent on not voting in a fu- ture election. This is also the segment where the PN is weakest (25%) which suggests that this segment that includes peo- ple at the peak of their careers, is the most distrustful of the Opposition, preferring to park their vote in the abstentionist camp rather than to shift to the PN. But abstention drops to 19.5% among younger voters aged under 35, amongst which support for third parties is considerably higher than in other categories. Abstention remains relatively high among those aged be- tween 51 and 65 (23%) but drops to just 8.5% among those aged over 65. The latter category also registers the lowest third-party vote and the high- est support for the PN. PN fares better among women Curiously, while the survey shows the two major parties neck and neck among male voters, the PN enjoys a strong 10-point lead among female voters. Male voters are also slightly more inclined to abstain than female vot- ers while women are slightly more inclined to vote for third parties. This suggests that the PN is finding it more difficult to communicate with Gozitan men. Gozo's historical shifts: Back to blue? The survey represents a considera- ble reversal of fortunes for all parties in the context of the post 2013 polit- ical landscape, which saw Labour be- coming the dominant force in Gozo. But Gozo has traditionally leaned PN in all elections between 1962 and 2013 with the PN peaking at 66% in 1966 when Labour voters were mor- ally sanctioned by the church. The PN remained dominant in the next decades, scoring its best results in 1981, 1992 and 2003 when the par- ty reached the 59% mark. On the other hand, support for La- bour never surpassed the 45% mark in any election held between 1962 and 2013. But Labour has seen its percentage increase from 43% in 2008 to 49% in 2013, to 51% in 2017 and to a post- independence record of 53.5% in 2022. Labour has also elected three seats from the district in the past three general elections, a feat by all means in a conservative community where almost 70% had voted against the in- troduction of divorce in 2011. While the PN still won a wafer thin majority of votes in 2013 (49.1%), Labour still managed to grab a third seat from Gozo, a feat repeated in 2017 and 2022 when the party also secured a majority of Gozitan votes. This suggests that Labour has man- aged to make major inroads in the past decade characterised by a prop- erty boom. Labour now also benefits from the same power of incumbency which the PN used in its favour be- fore 2013. But with the PL's support standing at 42%, which is slightly lower than it was in 2003, the survey suggests this could be the beginning of a new po- litical cycle that could see a number of former PN voters who shifted to Labour in the past decade going back home. But in its bid to appeal to these vot- ers by offering a degree of continu- ity with Labour, the PN risks losing other categories of voters who shun compromise with powerful lobbies and thus are more disposed to vote for a third party. What is most unprecedented in the survey is the result of third parties which together garner the support of over a tenth of the Gozitan elec- torate. Apart from the immediate post war period which saw the emergence of the Gozo Party and the Jones Party and a successful run by Coronato At- tard as a candidate for Herbert Gana- do's Democratic Nationalist Party in 1962, third parties have made limit- ed inroads. Attard himself immediately defect- ed to the PN helping George Borg Olivier secure a parliamentary ma- jority. Attard's daughter, Giovanna Debono, continued his legacy in the 1990s and 2000s becoming the PN's most popular MP. With the exception of a few suc- cessful runs at local level in the after- math of the EU referendum, AD nev- er took root in Gozo, barely scraping the 1% mark in all post 1992 general elections. But amidst discontent triggered by over development, including the re- cent outrage on the Chambray pro- ject, the party is now scoring at near- ly 6%. Moreover, a sizeable 5% are opting for new parties. In the 2022 general election, only 2.4% had voted for a third party. Methodology The survey was carried out be- tween 16 January 2025 and 28 January 2025. 666 Gozitan respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on district, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demo- graphic. The estimated margin of error is 3.76 p.p. for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall re- sults. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error. PL 41.7% PN 47.4% Others 5.1% Age Gender 2022 Voters 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 33% 30.1% 8.6% 8.8% 19.5% 34.3% 24.8% 5% 3.8% 32% 30.2% 39.8% 4.5% 2.7% 22.9% 34.6% 55% 0.7% 1.2% 8.5% PL PN ADPD Other Will not vote Age Gender 2022 Voters Current voters 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 35.3% 19.2% 45.5% 42.5% 20% 37.4% 36.7% 28.6% 34.8% 36.7% 45.2% 18.1% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Gozo Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 37.7% 29.1% 33.3% All Gozo Voters Gozo vote 2022 maltatoday PL 41.7% ADPD 5.8% PN 47.4% Others 5.1% Age Gender 2022 Voters 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Female Male 30.8% 41% 4.6% 4.8% 18.8% 35.4% 35.7% 4.5% 3.3% 21.1% PL PN ADPD Others Will not vote Age Gender 2022 Voters Current voters 100% Gozo Voting Intentions Gozo Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 37.7% 29.1% 33.3% All Gozo Voters Polling and market research since 2002 SURVEY Gozo vote 2022 Voting intentions by age Voting intentions by gender