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3 gozotoday | FRIDAY • 7 FEBRUARY 2025 NEWS GozoToday is a weekly newspaper focused primarily on Gozo. It hopes to serve as a source of information on business, culture, entertainment and of course current affairs. Gozo has a special charm about it but it is also a bustling Island with an identity of its own. GozoToday is published every Friday and is available to numerous outlets in Gozo and on the ferries that carry so many visitors to Gozo from Malta and beyond. GozoToday MediaToday Co. Ltd, Vjal ir-Rihan San Gwann SGN 9016 EDITOR: PAUL COCKS Tel: (356) 21 382741-3, 21 382745-6 Website: www.maltatoday.com.mt E-mail: dailynews@mediatoday.com.mt THE Gozitan electorate is in flux with different categories of voters moving in different directions, a MaltaToday regional survey sug- gests. While Labour is mostly losing votes to abstention and to the PN, the Nationalists are losing more votes to third parties. The MaltaToday Gozo survey shows that ultimately the PN is gaining more votes than it is los- ing, and based on a predicted turnout of 80% – down from 88% in the 2022 general election – the PN is now leading Labour by 5.7 points in the region. This represents a drastic reversal of fortunes for the PL which back in 2022 had enjoyed a 10-point advantage over the PN. The survey shows that in Gozo the PN is now leading the PL by 1,649 votes, overturning Labour's considerable 2,530-vote lead in the 2022 general election. The survey suggests that while Labour has lost 3,770 votes since 2022, the PN has gained a modest 409 votes while the third-party vote has increased by a remarka- ble 2,015 votes. The PN has only increased its vote share by three points over the 2022 election but the PL's share has decreased by 11 points. Third parties have seen their share of the vote increase by eight points. Significant shift from PL to PN The PN's positive result comes amidst a considerable shift in its favour of 2022 Labour voters. While the PN is only losing 1.3% of its 2022 voters to Labour, the PL is losing 9.6% of its Gozitan voters to the Nationalists. In this case the shift from the PL to the PN in Gozo is more pronounced than that in national surveys. The last national Malta- Today survey carried out in No- vember showed that only 4% of PL voters in 2022 would vote PN in a future election. Moreover, this shift was partly offset by 3% of PN voters who would now vote PL. But as is the case on a national level, Labour is more heavily pe- nalised by abstention than the PN. The Gozo survey shows that while 16% of PL voters in the 2022 general election are now intent on not voting, only 4% of PN voters in that election will do likewise. The shift to third parties But the survey also shows the PN losing more votes to third parties than Labour. While Labour is los- ing 3% of its 2022 voters to ADPD and just 0.3% to other parties, the PN is losing nearly 5.6% of its 2022 vote to ADPD and a further 5.7% to other parties. Overall, while the PL is losing 3.3% to third parties, the PN is los- ing 11% of its 2022 vote to smaller parties. The survey also suggests that flows to new parties follow a dif- ferent trajectory than those for ADPD. While ADPD manages to take votes from both established parties, new political forces are mostly draining the PN vote. But new political forces are also taking a significant portion of peo- ple who did not vote in the 2022 general election. In this category 10.3% will vote for these parties while only 3.3% will vote ADPD. Overall, the survey suggests that PN losses to third parties are off- set by its gains from Labour and the greater abstention in the co- hort of 2022 Labour voters. In fact while the PN retains 83.5% of its 2022 voters, Labour only retains 71% of its voters. PL, ADPD and new parties stronger among younger voters The survey shows the PL still leading the PN in Gozo among under 50-year-olds. While the PL leads by three points among 16- to 35-year-olds, it leads by 9.5 points among 35- to 50-year-olds. But the PN is leading by a consider- able margin among older voters: 9.6 points among 51- to 65-year- olds and by 20 points among pen- sioners. The survey also shows third par- ties making strong inroads among younger voters. Among 16- to 35-year-olds a considerable 17% opt for third parties, equally split between ADPD and 'others'. ADPD retains its dominance of the third-party field among voters aged between 36 and 65, but new parties score better than ADPD among Gozitans aged over 65. But the percentage opting for third parties drops from 17% among 16- to 35-year-olds to 9% among 36- to 50-year-olds, to 7% among 50- to 65-year-olds and to just 2% among pensioners. PN fares better among women Curiously, while the survey shows the two major parties neck and neck among male voters, the PN enjoys a strong 10-point lead among female voters. Male voters are also slightly more inclined to abstain than female voters while women are slightly more inclined to vote for third parties. This sug- gests that the PN is finding it more difficult to communicate with Gozitan men. Gozo's historical shifts The survey represents a consid- erable reversal of fortunes for all parties in the context of the post 2013 political landscape, which saw Labour becoming the domi- nant force in Gozo. But Gozo has traditionally leaned PN in all elections between 1962 and 2013 with the PN peak- ing at 66% in 1966 when Labour voters were morally sanctioned by the church. The PN remained dominant in the next decades, scoring its best results in 1981, 1992 and 2003 when the party reached the 59% mark. On the other hand, support for Labour never surpassed the 45% mark in any election held between 1962 and 2013. But Labour has seen its percent- age increase from 43% in 2008 to 49% in 2013, to 51% in 2017 and to a post- independence record of 53.5% in 2022. Labour has also elected three seats from the district in the past three general elections, a feat by all means in a conservative com- munity where almost 70% had voted against the introduction of divorce in 2011. While the PN still won a wa- fer thin majority of votes in 2013 (49.1%), Labour still managed to grab a third seat from Gozo, a feat repeated in 2017 and 2022 when the party also secured a majority of Gozitan votes. This suggests that Labour has managed to make major inroads in the past decade characterised by a property boom. Labour now also benefits from the same power of incumbency which the PN used in its favour before 2013. But with the PL's support stand- ing at 42%, which is slightly low- er than it was in 2003, the survey suggests this could be the begin- ning of a new political cycle that could see a number of former PN voters who shifted to Labour in the past decade going back home. But in its bid to appeal to these voters by offering a degree of con- tinuity with Labour, the PN risks losing other categories of voters who shun compromise with pow- erful lobbies and thus are more disposed to vote for a third party. What is most unprecedented in the survey is the result of third parties which together garner the support of over a tenth of the Gozitan electorate. Apart from the immediate post war period which saw the emergence of the Gozo Party and the Jones Party and a successful run by Coronato Attard as a candidate for Herbert Ganado's Democratic Nationalist Party in 1962, third parties have made limited inroads. Attard himself immediately defected to the PN helping George Borg Oliv- ier secure a parliamentary major- ity. Attard's daughter, Giovanna Debono, continued his legacy in the 1990s and 2000s becoming the PN's most popular MP. With the exception of a few suc- cessful runs at local level in the aftermath of the EU referendum, AD never took root in Gozo, bare- ly scraping the 1% mark in all post 1992 general elections. But amidst discontent triggered by over development, including the recent outrage on the Cham- bray project, the party is now scor- ing at nearly 6%. Moreover, a size- able 5% are opting for new parties. In the 2022 general election, only 2.4% had voted for a third party. Back to blue: Gozo swings back to PN Age Gender 2022 Voters 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 33% 30.1% 8.6% 8.8% 19.5% 34.3% 24.8% 5% 3.8% 32% 30.2% 39.8% 4.5% 2.7% 22.9% 34.6% 55% 0.7% 1.2% 8.5% PL PN ADPD Other Will not vote Age Gender 2022 Voters Current voters 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 35.3% 19.2% 45.5% 42.5% 20% 37.4% 36.7% 28.6% 34.8% 36.7% 45.2% 18.1% Gozo Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 37.7% 29.1% 33.3% All Gozo Voters Gozo vote 2022

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