Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1532462
JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt mt SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 FEBRUARY 2025 9 day survey, Momentum, a new centrist party launched last month by perennial third party candidate Arnold Cassola and a new team of activists, is scoring slightly above ADPD at 4%. The survey shows that Momentum scores its best result among tertiary educated and young voters. The survey shows the new party garnering the sup- port of 7% of tertiary educated voters and the support of 6% of under 35-year- old voters. But Momentum has made very limit- ed inroads among secondary educated voters (1.1%) and post-secondary edu- cated voters (2.6%). The new party also takes a larger share of PN voters than Labour voters. While 4% of PN voters in 2022 opt for Mo- mentum, only 1.5% of Labour voters in 2022 opt for Cassola's party. Despite competition from the new kid on the block, ADPD has only seen in its support drop by less than a point from November. This is an indication that Momentum is not simply eating into the green vote. And while Momentum is stronger among former PN voters, ADPD at- tracts an equal percentage of PN and PL voters (around 2% each). ADPD also remains stronger than Momentum among respondents with a post-secondary level of education. Among this category, composed of people with a technical or vocation- al education, support for the Greens peaks at 6%. On a regional level, Momentum is strongest in the Nationalist leaning Northern region where 6% of voters opt for the new party. In this region Mo- mentum has eclipsed the Greens that score less than 1%. But the party also makes inroads in the Labour leaning South Harbour re- gion, where nearly 4% opt for the new party. Surprisingly, the survey shows support for third parties at 8.3% in this region comprised of traditional La- bour strongholds. ADPD still performs better than Momentum in the North Harbour and Western districts. But support for both parties falls to 2% in Gozo and to just 1% in the South-east- ern region. Methodology The survey was carried out between Wednesday 29th January 2025 and Thursday 13th February 2025. 672 respondents opted to complete the sur- vey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 3.78% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significant- ly larger margins of error. Government gets satisfactory rating of 2.9 out of 5 RESPONDENTS have given the government a mean score of 2.9 out of 5 when respondents were asked to rate its performance. Respondents were asked to give the government led by Robert Ab- ela a score of between 0 (very bad) and 5 (very good). The government enjoys the high- est rating (3.2) among pensioners, a clear indication of a post budget shift in attitude among this cohort. A regional breakdown confirms difficulties facing government in Gozo, where its rating (2.6) is low- er than the rest of the regions in Malta. Government's rating peaks in the South-eastern region at 3.4. A breakdown by education shows that government's rating is lowest among the tertiary educated (2.5) and highest among those with a secondary level (3.1) and primary level of education (3.3). Crucially, the government is still given a favourable rating of 2.7 by current non-voters. Not surpris- ingly though, while Labour voters give Abela's government a superla- tive rating of 4.2, this decreases to a meagre 1.8 among PN voters. In an indication of increased po- larisation, while 26% of PN voters give the government a rating of 0 out of 5, a remarkable 41% of PL voters give Abela's government full marks. 2022 Voters 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 PL 2022 PN 2022 No vote 2022 78.7% 5.9% 15.4% 14.3% 55.7% 30.1% 32.5% 11.7% 55.8% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Profile of non-voters Age Gender Regions Education Past vote 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 PL voters in 2022 General Election PN voterd in 2022 general election 21.1% 13.5% All Voters How do you rate government's performance? 0 5 2.9 The survey was carried out between Wednesday 29th January 2025 and Thursday 13th February 2025. 672 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 3.78% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error.. Government's rating increases from 2.7 to 2.9, the highest ever since MaltaToday introduced the government performance barometer Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Female Male 37.6% 31.7% 3.8% 1.7% 0.3% 25% 35.1% 34.6% 2.3% 3.4% 0.5% 24.1% PL PN Momentum ADPD Others Will not vote Gender 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Female Male 46.6% 22.1% 31.3% 47% 27.3% 25.7% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Trust Barometer Profile of non-voters Age Gender Regions Education Past vote 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 25% 24.1% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 46.8% 24.7% 28.5% All Voters maltatoday PL 48.2% ADPD 3.4% Momentum 4.0% PN 43.9% Others 0.5% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 PL 2022 PN 2022 No vote 2022 65.5% 9.9% 1.5% 1.7% 0.3% 21.1% 10.1% 69.9% 4% 2.2% 0.3% 13.5% 15.6% 20.7% 4% 3.1% 0.3% 56.4% PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote Current voters 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Current PL voters Current PN voters Current non voters 88.1% 1.7% 10.2% 11.2% 61.9% 26.9% 37.6% 10.7% 51.7% Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 46.8% 24.7% 28.5% All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 SURVEY Nov 2024 Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Northern N. Harbour S. Eastern S. Harbour Western Gozo PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote Region 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Northern N. Harbour S. Eastern S. Harbour Western Gozo 42.4% 28.9% 28.7% 42.2% 29.6% 28.2% 65.6% 13.8% 20.7% 50% 17.9% 32.2% 48.6% 21% 30.4% 32% 36.9% 31.1% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Trust Barometer Profile of non-voters Age Gender Regions Education Past vote 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 23.5% 21.7% 28.1% 28.3% 21.5% 27% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 46.8% 24.7% 28.5% All Voters Voting intentions by gender Voting intentions per past votes Voting intentions by region