Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1532462
JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt mt SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 FEBRUARY 2025 7 Labour leads PN by 12,000 votes as Momentum breaks new ground In the first MaltaToday national survey of 2025, the PL steams ahead of the PN with a relative majority as Arnold Cassola's new party, Momentum, captures 4% of the vote • Shift from PL to PN offset by counter shift from PN to PL. THE Labour Party is leading the Na- tionalist Party by 4.3 points, which translates to an advantage of 11,613 votes on a projected turnout of 75.5%. The first MaltaToday national survey for 2025 shows Labour still falling short of an absolute major- ity, scoring 48.2% against the PN's 43.9%. Compared to the last MaltaToday survey held in November, immedi- ately after the budget, the PL has gained 2.9 points and the PN has lost 2.4 points. The share of other parties has re- mained stable at 7.9% compared to 8.3% in November. But notably, the survey shows Momentum, a new political party founded by former independent candidate Arnold Cas- sola, at 4%, surpassing ADPD which still garners 3.4% despite the com- petition. The survey suggests that the PL had a delayed post budget boost since it was in January that people started to feel impact of measures that left them with more money in their pockets. This has enabled La- bour, which was trailing the PN by a single point in November, to sur- pass its rival again with a clear four- point advantage. The survey suggests that Labour has not been penalised by the on- going controversary over a reform of magisterial inquiries, even if the party's support remains substantial- ly lower than its 2022 general elec- tion score of 55.1%. In numerical terms, the PL, which was trailing the PN by 2,647 votes in November, is now leading by 11,613 votes. The difference between the two major parties is substantially lower than the total share obtained by third parties collectively (21,196 votes). The survey results show that if a general election were to be held now, the turnout would be 75.5%, down from 83.2% in the last general election but up five points from an estimated turnout of 70.6% record- ed in MaltaToday's November sur- vey. Shifts between parties cancel each other Once again the PL's decreased sup- port from 2022 levels is attributable to a higher abstention rate among past Labour voters. But the survey also shows that vot- ers are not static in their allegianc- es. The shifts between the two main parties are nearly cancelling each CONTINUES NEXT PAGE > maltatoday PL 48.2% ADPD 3.4% Momentum 4.0% PN 43.9% Others 0.5% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 65.5% 69.9% 56.4% Voting Intentions All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 SURVEY Nov 2024