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7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 19 FEBRUARY 2025 ANALYSIS surveys, same PN score, different leads and 13 February while the poll released by The Sunday Times of Malta was held between 30 January and 12 February. Mar- mara's survey was held be- tween 1 and 6 February. This means that all three sur- veys coincided with respond- ents receiving higher pay cheques reflecting the budget tax cut and with ongoing po- litical controversies, including that on magisterial inquiries. The gap between the parties Taken individually, all three surveys show the PL enjoying a comfortable lead over the PN, albeit one considerably lower than the 39,000-vote gap obtained in the 2022 gen- eral election. The gap between the two ma- jor parties stands at between 4.3 percentage points in Malt- aToday's survey and 6.5 points in The Sunday Times survey. Marmara puts the gap at 5.9 points. The estimated gap between the two main parties based on the different projected turnout in each survey varies between 11,613 votes in the MaltaToday survey to 15,800 votes in the Marmara survey and 18,700 votes in the Times of Malta survey. PN's support consistent, PL and third parties differ The three surveys tend to converge on the level of sup- port for the PN but differ on the support for Labour and other parties. Nonetheless, in all three cases, the difference falls squarely within the mar- gin of error of each survey. Support for the PN ranges from 43.9% in the MaltaToday survey to 44.2% in Marmara's survey to 45% in the Times survey. This means that, on this account, the three surveys differ by a point or less, which is statistically insignificant. But the level of support for Labour ranges from 48.2% in the MaltaToday survey to 50.1% in Marmara's to 51.5% in the Sunday Times survey. On this account, the difference between the three surveys is no more than 3.3 points. Moreover, the level of sup- port for third parties rang- es from 3.5% in the Sunday Times survey to 7.9% in the MaltaToday survey. Vincent Marmara puts the level of support for third par- ties at 5.7%. In this case, the three surveys differ by a maxi- mum of 4.4 points. Only MaltaToday's survey included an estimate of sup- port for new party Momentum (4%). Both Marmara and Malt- aToday gave a separate es- timate for ADPD with both surveys converging at 3%. But while MaltaToday polled oth- er third parties at 0.5%, Mar- mara polled other parties at 2.7%. The Sunday Times sur- vey grouped all third parties (including ADPD) together at just 3.5%. Scenarios based on margin of error range The three surveys also have different margins of error, which means that each sur- vey's findings could vary from a high point and a low point for each party within a scien- tifically established range. Vincent Marmara's survey, which had a sample of 1,200, had the lowest margin of er- ror (+/- 2.8 points), while The Sunday Times survey, which had a sample of 600 respond- ents, had the highest margin of error (+/- 4 points). MaltaTo- day, which had a sample of 672 respondents, had a margin of error of (+/- 3.8 points). The margin of error of these three surveys indicates that the actual results could vary within a range, with the gap between the highest and low- est estimates reflecting the possible fluctuations in each survey's findings. In the case of the Marmara survey, the range of possibil- ities varies from a neck-and- neck scenario in which both major parties are locked at 47% to one where Labour has a strong mandate of 53%. In the case of the Sunday Times survey, the possible outcomes range from a super- majority for Labour of 55.5% to the PN leading with a rela- tive majority of 49%. In the case of the MaltaToday survey, the outcomes range from an absolute majority for Labour of 52% to a relative majority of 48% for the PN. When all three surveys are taken together, the range of possibilities stretches from a 55.5% majority for Labour to a relative majority of 49% for the PN. Support for third parties ranges from a complete wipe- out to a record 11.7%. Times of Malta Vince Marmara Malta Today Average PL 51.5 50.1 48.2 49.9 PN 45 44.2 43.9 44.4 Others 3.5 5.7 7.9 5.7 Times of Malta Vince Marmara MaltaToday PL 47.5-55.5 47.3-52.9 44.4-52 PN 41-49 41.4-47 40.1-47.7 Others 0-7.5 2.9-8.5 4.1-11.7 All three polls PL 44.4-55.5 PN 40.1-49 Others 0-11.7 Minimum and maximum level of support for each party in each survey based on margin of error of each poll Minimum and maximum level of support for each party registered in the range covered by all three surveys