Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1532744
7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 26 FEBRUARY 2025 ANALYSIS election: Last wake-up call or poisoned chalice? world chilled the international community by voting against a UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The greatest fault lines be- tween the CDU and the AfD lie in their attitudes towards the new order unleashed by Trump and Putin. While a Germany led by the AfD would align it- self with the emerging league of autocracies, the CDU, like other democratic parties, is rooted in European democracy. The AfD questions Germa- ny's place in Europe and the western alliance, now shaken by Trump's coming onto the scene. Back to the grand coalition But can Merz really reach common ground with the SPD? Germany already had a stable grand coalition between 2013 and 2021. However, that coali- tion was led by Angela Merkel, a politician whose strength was consensus-building and whose demeanor even attracted center-left voters. Unlike 'Mut- ti' Merkel, Merz is hawkish and panders to the right. Now, he must govern with the center- left from a position of strength, as his party is nearly twice as large as the SPD. 'Mutti's' inheritance Weighing on the govern- ment's future are two aspects of Merkel's legacy: Her decision to allow nearly 1 million Syr- ian refugees fleeing a terrible civil war in 2015 and her con- tinued reliance on Russian gas. In practical terms, the Syrian gamble paid off; 226,600 Syri- ans are currently employed and play a crucial role in the health- care sector, where they provide urgently needed services. Many of them have been able to enter the nursing profession thanks to specialised training pro- grammes. Despite these realities, the sudden influx, coupled with inflation and economic decline after the pandemic and the Russian invasion, has created a hostile climate toward mi- grants. During the campaign, Merz promised that "all illegal immigrants" should be turned back at the border, including people seeking protection from war or political persecution. He also stated he was ready to issue a "de facto ban" on entry for all those without valid entry docu- ments. The only significant differ- ence with the AfD on this as- pect is that the latter even hints at repatriating legal refugees deemed to be unassimilable. The SPD's poisoned chalice Despite the haphazard rein- troduction of border controls under Scholz, diluting asylum rights by turning away people who may be eligible for protec- tion is a sticking point for the SPD. While some leaders may be amenable to compromise, fearing further losses in the in- dustrial heartlands, the party risks further losses to Die Linke if it goes this way. Die Linke not only fended off a challenge from a former leader Sarah Wagenknecht who set up her own left-wing anti-migrant party, but it also managed to retain its stronghold in the east while winning over young pro- gressive voters in major urban centers, mostly at the cost of the SPD and the Greens. In fact, in what could be a taste of things to come among 18- to 24-year- olds, Die Linke has emerged as the largest party at 24%, closely followed by the right-wing AfD at 21%. The key to this success was a coupling of progressive causes with a commitment for the welfare state. In this sense, governing with the CDU from a position of weakness could be a poisoned chalice for the SPD, especially if increased military spending is needed to counter the threat posed by Putin. That is why the SPD is keen on abrogating the debt brake – the constitutional rule that restricts annual struc- tural deficits to 0.35% of GDP. The CDU does not exclude this but is less enthusiastic. The lat- ter has also promised tax cuts and public expenditure cuts aimed at increasing growth and possibly tax revenues. The risk is that austerity could further contribute to the growth of the far right. The imperative to succeed Despite these differences, the arithmetic confines both parties in a marriage dictated by the imperative of keeping Germany in Europe and preventing a far- right party from gaining power. But what happens next? The CDU has failed in its post- war mission of ensuring that no party thrives on its right. With the liberal FDP excluded from parliament, the CDU faces an absence of coalition partners. While Merkel once toyed with the idea of a Jamaica coalition with the Greens, Merz is unlike- ly to contemplate such an op- tion. This is bound to increase the temptation among the par- ty's right wing to team up with the far right. On the other hand, it will be hard for the SPD to govern with the CDU while paving the way for an alternative coalition that probably will have to include both the Greens and Die Linke. Ultimately, it all boils down to how consensual and decisive Merz will be in government to bring Germany back to the forefront of Europe, inherit- ing Merkel's unofficial role as leader of the free world. For he is right on one thing: "It is now five minutes to midnight for Eu- rope." Under Alice Weidel, Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has doubled its support in just four years to 20.8%