Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1534411
7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 16 APRIL 2025 ANALYSIS survey: Labour rebounds, PN stalls MEP elections. 2. Nearly half of PN voters back the party despite distrusting Grech Some on social media have speculated that Robert Abela's 27-point trust lead over Bernard Grech implies Labour's nine- point advantage could be even greater. Grech's low trust rating is large- ly explained by his limited appeal among his own base. While Abe- la is trusted by 96% of current PL voters, Grech is trusted by just 58% of current PN voters. This means a significant por- tion of PN voters intend to vote for the party despite distrusting its leader. However, only 2.5% of current non-voters trust Grech more than Abela, compared to 25% who trust the prime min- ister. This suggests Labour may have more room to grow among disillusioned voters. Key to Grech's low rating is possibly the electorate's scepticism as to whether he enjoys prime minis- terial qualities. One could argue that a more trusted leader might energise the PN and appeal to non-voters. But without a credible challenger to replace Grech, the PN risks re- peating the missteps of the De- lia ouster. Nonetheless, keeping Grech as a stop gap measure is surely not helping the party in presenting itself as a govern- ment-in-waiting. It suggests that the party has already given up on winning the next election. 3. Labour's popularity underpinned by a positive government rating When asked to rate the Abela government on a scale from 0 to 5, voters gave it an average score of 3.1 – up from 2.9 in February and 2.7 in September. When we introduced the Gov- ernment Performance Barom- eter, our goal was to assess the government on its own merits and not in comparison to the PN. The result suggests Labour's lead is not solely due to distrust in the opposition but because the gov- ernment is viewed positively in its own right. A major factor may be the re- cent budget, which left people with more disposable income. While this does not cancel out concerns about the econom- ic model, rising inequality, low wages, and environmental degra- dation, it highlights the value vot- ers place on stability, especially in areas like energy costs, pensions, and healthcare. Yes, part of this "feel-good fac- tor" may stem from effective po- litical messaging and propaganda but such sentiment can fade if people start to feel the pinch. 4. Labour retains strong support amongst working class and lower middle class The survey shows that an ab- solute majority of secondary-ed- ucated voters intend to vote for the PL. When non-voters are removed from the equation, Labour's sup- port in this category amounts to 56%, nine points ahead of the PN. The lead increases to 28 points among those with a primary level of education, a category largely composed of pensioners. Among respondents who have not been to university but have a post-sec- ondary level of education, Labour still leads the PN by nine points. It is only among the tertiary-edu- cated that the PN commands an absolute majority (52%). This suggests that low- and middle-income earners still perceive Labour to be their saf- est bet. Despite concerns about certain aspects of the economic model, these groups seem to ap- preciate stability in energy prices and Labour's anti-austerity mes- sage. In this sense the PN's major stumbling block remains its fail- ure to reassure these voters that material gains in the past decade won't be reversed. 5. Momentum and ADPD cannot afford to ignore each other Third-party support remains fragmented. ADPD retains its traditional level of support, while Momentum has carved out a niche among younger and more educated voters. Currently, both parties are ap- pealing to a similar demographic on the centre-left. While Mo- mentum has rebranded effective- ly, this raises the question of why the rebranding didn't involve a broader coalition with like-mind- ed forces such as ADPD. It's not a given that the sum of both parties would be greater than the parts. But fragmentation can reinforce perceptions that third parties are unstable and incapable of the kind of cooper- ation that voters expect, especial- ly if they are to be seen as viable partners in coalition politics. Minister Robert Abela and Finance minister Clyde Caruana One could argue that a more trusted leader might energise the PN and appeal to non-voters.