Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1535522
10 10 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 18 MAY 2025 NEWS Malta's native population set to decline The Central Bank report warns that, at least in the medium term, continued growth in the labour supply will depend on the contribution of foreign nationals THE native Maltese population is expect- ed to drop by 14% by 2050 and 32% by 2075 if current demographic trends per- sist, a Central Bank of Malta report sug- gests. It concludes that foreign workers will remain essential to address shortages in the labour market, at least in the medium term. The report, authored by Senior Econ- omist Lynn Cumbo, projects that the number of Maltese nationals will decline from around 405,000 in 2023 to 347,000 by 2050, and to 275,000 by 2075. At the same time, foreign nationals, who already make up almost a third of Malta's work- force, are expected to account for nearly half (46%) of the working-age population by 2035. In 2023, Malta's total population stood at around 563,000, of which approximate- ly 405,000 were Maltese nationals. For- eign nationals made up 28% of the pop- ulation and accounted for 31.8% of the working-age population (aged 15–74), up from just 2.5% in 2000. The use of the term "Maltese native pop- ulation" in the report refers to the number of Maltese citizens irrespective of ethnici- ty and is based on the categorisation used by the National Statistics Office, which distinguishes between Maltese citizens and non-Maltese residents in its census updates. The report acknowledges that its projec- tions do not take in to account a possible increase in the number of naturalisations as a result of foreign workers settling in Malta and becoming natives themselves. Different scenarios The report projects that the native Mal- tese population will decline under all demographic scenarios considered. In the baseline projection, which assumes a gradual convergence of fertility rates to the EU average by 2075, the native popu- lation falls to around 347,000 by 2050 and to 275,000 by 2075. Two other alternative scenarios are also presented in the report. Scenario 1 maintains fertility rates at 2023 levels (1.22 for Maltese women), re- sulting in a sharper decline to 309,000 by 2050 and approximately 250,000 by 2075. Scenario 2 assumes that no Maltese citi- zens return to the country in future years, accelerating the decline to 305,000 by 2050 and also to approximately 250,000 by 2075. Fertility and gender roles As of 2023, the fertility rate for Maltese women stood at 1.22—far below the re- placement level of 2.1 and below an EU average of 1.5. While recognising that this trend is largely driven by persistently low fertility rates and an ageing population, the report suggests that policies to increase fertility may be constrained by lifestyle chang- es and challenges in achieving work–life balance, referencing earlier Central Bank research. The report stresses that efforts to coun- teract low fertility trends should favour balancing the family and career choices of both men and women, "without un- dermining the participation of Maltese natives in the labour market". Moreover, it notes that other countries have suc- ceeded in making women's family and career choices compatible through fam- ily-friendly policies, increased involve- ment of fathers, a redefinition of gender roles, and greater flexibility in labour markets. "This shows that reversing the downward trend in Malta's fertility rate may be possible by adopting a similar ap- proach," the report states. Foreign nationals to account for nearly half the workforce Furthermore, the report projects that foreign nationals will account for an in- creasingly large share of the labour force. Under baseline assumptions, their share of the working-age population is expect- ed to rise from 30.4% in 2023 to 45.9% by 2035, continuing to grow thereafter. And while the total working age popu- lation is expected to continue increasing at a steady rate reaching a level of almost 510,000 persons by 2075 the number of Maltese persons in the total working age population is expected to fall to about 280,000 persons. The participation rate of foreign resi- dents is also considerably higher than that of Maltese residents. In 2024, about 87% of foreigners aged 15–74 were in the la- bour force, compared to around 66% of Maltese nationals. While participation "Under baseline assumptions, the share of foreign nationals in the working-age population is expected to rise from 30.4% in 2023 to 45.9% by 2035, continuing to grow thereafter" JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt