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4 NEWS 4 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 11 JUNE 2025 MaltaToday Labour bounces Labour's poll gains closely mirror a drop in abstention among its 2022 voters, while it's now the PN that's feeling the weight of voter disengagement. James Debono analyses polling trends over the past months in light of the latest MaltaToday survey AN analysis of MaltaToday sur- veys conducted between Octo- ber 2023 and June 2025 reveals a consistent trend: Labour's poll performance improves when ab- stention among its 2022 voters declines. With negligible voter shifts between Labour and PN, changes in support have hinged almost entirely on mobilisation rather than conversion. Moreo- ver, Labour's recent gains seem to be coming from its own vot- ers drifting back, not switching sides. This points to a rebound in turnout rather than any real shift in party support. The lat- est survey only shows 3% of PL voters shifting to the PN and 1% of PN voters shifting to La- bour. This small shift which is consistent with similar ones in previous surveys, is practically cancelled by a larger 6% shift of PN voters to third parties. How abstention fluctuated But while the small shift from the PL to the PN has remained constant over the past year and a half, the abstention rate among PL voters in 2022 has changed considerably. In October 2023, abstention among Labour's 2022 voter co- hort was already considerably high at 29.3%, coinciding with FROM PAGE 1 Grech underscored that the choice of new leader will be made by PN members accord- ing to the rules laid down in the party statute. Nonetheless, Grech's statement was in- terpreted by many PN insiders as a direct challenge to Metsola, who has been unable to make up her mind on where her future lies. The EP president has always been cagey about her political ambitions, especially when asked whether she would consider a return to domestic politics. Grech's challenge reflects the widespread anticipation within the PN for a Metsola lead- ership bid, which has over the past few years paralysed the party. The resignation came in the wake of Malt- aToday's latest survey, which showed the PN polling at under 40% and Grech's trust rating hitting a new low. Meanwhile, Metsola's only reaction yester- day to the developments was a short Face- book post in which she thanked Grech for his "dedication and friendship". The post includ- ed a recent photo of Metsola and Grech taken in Gozo, where the EP president had organ- ised a public event for constituents. The Gozo event coincided with strong ru- mours that Grech was going to resign, mak- ing way for Adrian Delia to stand in as inter- im leader until Metsola's term as EP president ends in January 2027. Grech had quashed those rumours, insisting they were fuelled by the Labour Party. How- ever, sources within the PN told MaltaToday that the idea of a transition had been floated internally by people close to Delia and Metso- la appeared to have warmed up to it. Nonetheless, Metsola's non-committal was proving to be problematic and Grech's sud- den announcement on Tuesday was one way of throwing down the gauntlet to Metsola. PN could have new leader by September The PN statute states that a leadership election has to be held not later than three months from when the vacancy arises. This means that if the maximum timeframe is adopted, the PN will have a new leader by September. In his resignation letter to Secretary-gen- eral Charles Bonello, Grech said he will convene a meeting of the party executive for Wednesday (today) so that the neces- sary decisions are taken to kick off the lead- ership contest. Nonetheless, the PN will have to convene a general council that empowers the party's electoral commission to open the nomi- nations period. Depending on when the general council takes place, within 10 days those interested to contest the post will have to submit a declaration. This means that potentially within the next fortnight, anyone interested in becom- ing PN leader will have to make up their mind. A specific commission will then carry out due diligence on those who would have shown an interest in the leadership post. This exercise can take up to six weeks. Only those who pass the due diligence exercise will be able to contest the election. If there are more than two candidates run- ning for the post, the first round of voting takes place among PN councillors. The top two candidates will then progress to a sec- ond round of voting among party members, where a simple majority would suffice for the winner to be declared leader. If only one candidate runs for the post, party members do not get a say since the vote will only take place among councillors. A simple majority would suffice to be con- firmed leader. Grech staying on until replacement is elected Meanwhile, Grech yesterday stated he will stay on as PN and Opposition Leader until his replacement is found. He said that a change in leadership is the best step for the party and the country. Grech said that five years ago when he took control of the PN, he found a party with many wounds, and that he worked tire- lessly to unite the party once again. He noted his success in decreasing the gap between the PL and PN in last year's MEP and local council elections. On a personal level, Grech described the past five years as full of highs and lows. He particularly mentioned that he lost both his parents, while the PN lost invaluable people such as Robert Arrigo, Francis Zammit Di- mech, and Karl Gouder. He thanked his family, the public, and party supporters, and asked forgiveness from any- one he might have hurt during his tenure. Grech was elected PN leader in 2020 after his predecessor Adrian Delia was ousted by a group of rebel MPs following another Mal- taToday survey. Grech will stay on as PN and Opposition Leader until replacement is found Bernard Grech's resignation has brought a mixed bag of reactions from within the PN. While PN MPs thank their outgoing leader, all eyes are on possible contenders for the upcoming leadership contest that has just kicked off. Interestingly, it seems that the question on everyone's mind was first uttered by the PN's former president for political research, Mary Anne Lauri. In a Facebook post, Lauri asked whether European Parliament President Roberta Metsola will step down from her post to throw her hat in the ring. The PN's vacant leadership and what that could mean for Metsola was also noticed by European news outlet Politico. According to Politico, PN officials stated that there will be pressure for Metsola to enter local politics as she is seen as a figure that is accepted by most factions within the PN. Metsola, who is currently in New York, gave no hints as to what her next moves will be, as she thanked Bernard Grech for his dedication and friendship. PN rising star Alex Borg, who is frequently touted as a possible leader, gave no indication of his next steps. In his post, he thanked Grech for his work towards party unity. Among the more sober voices within the PN parliamentary group, Darren Carabott thanked Grech for bringing in a new generation of MPs, as well as decreasing the gap between the PL and PN in last year's election. "Today, you made another decision that placed the country first and foremost." MP Mark Anthony Sammut thanked Grech and acknowledged that the resignation was not an easy step. "This is the moment where we stand closer together and roll our sleeves up," Sammut stated. Interestingly, lawyer and former PN MP Franco Debono seems to be teasing a possible leadership bid. Following news of Grech's resignation, Debono posted a number of messages he recieved urging him to contest. "I always brought the country's interest first and foremost. You know this." Former PN leader Adrian Delia also thanked Grech for his service, as he stated that the party has just entered a delicate stage. On Facebook, Delia called for unity and warned against hastiness and personal interest. All eyes on possible PN leadership contenders: 'Will Roberta take on the post?' Bernard Grech announced his resignation as PN lader in a live address on the party media